Eagles vs. Chiefs Prediction: Super Bowl 2023 Winner, Pick Against The Spread

Predicting the winner of Super Bowl LVII isn't easy, considering the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will meet in one of the most evenly matched Super Bowls in recent history. The Super Bowl point spread is less than two points for just the second time in the last eight years and the third time in four decades.

The Eagles have settled in as 1.5-point favorites over the Chiefs across all the top sportsbooks. With such a thin betting line, a pick against the spread is not much different than picking a straight-up winner for the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs and Eagles both tied for an NFL-best 14-3 record in the regular season. Kansas City has won its two playoff games by a combined 10 points. Facing lesser competition, Philadelphia cruised to the Super Bowl with a plus-55 point differential in two postseason games.

Philadelphia has the best team in the league. Kansas City has the league's best player in Patrick Mahomes. What does that mean for the Super Bowl outcome?

If both teams play their best, the Eagles will likely emerge as the Super Bowl champions. Philadelphia's offensive and defensive lines are arguably both the best in all of football. Jalen Hurts is an MVP finalist. Hurts was able to become a top quarterback in part because of a dangerous receiving corps.

Mahomes probably doesn't have a wide receiver as good as A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith. The Chiefs limped to the end of the AFC Championship with injuries to almost all of their best wide receivers. Mahomes was literally limping at times, just one week removed from suffering a high ankle sprain.

The Eagles could make life a nightmare for Mahomes all night long at Arizona's State Farm Stadium. Philadelphia had 15 more sacks than any other team in the regular season. The Eagles sacked Daniel Jones five times in the divisional playoffs. The Eagles managed to record three more sacks in the NFC Championship Game, even though the San Francisco 49ers only attempted 18 passes.

The Chiefs were blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Super Bowl three years ago because Kansas City's offensive line couldn't protect Mahomes. It remains to be seen how mobile the quarterback will be Sunday and how well he'll be able to move when the likes of Haason Reddick, Javon Hargrave and Brandon Graham are threatening to drive him into the ground.

Mahomes is the best player in the NFL for a reason. On one healthy ankle, the quarterback managed to throw for 326 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Cincinnati Bengals. The same Bengals defense had just held Josh Allen and an explosive Buffalo Bills offense to 10 points.

Mahomes' mobility could be much improved after an additional two weeks of rest. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are expected to return after suffering injuries in the AFC Championship Game. The same goes for Justin Watson, who missed the Chiefs' last game with an illness.

Travis Kelce will be the most reliable target on the field in the Super Bowl. The tight end has proven to be an all-time playoff performer. Only Jerry Rice has more postseason receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns than Kelce.

The Chiefs have scored at least 20 points in 16 straight games. That streak is unlikely to end, even against Philadelphia's No. 2 ranked defense. Kansas City scored 44 points against San Francisco's No. 1 defense during its current streak.

Kansas City's defense isn't great, but it's also not among the league's worst. The Chiefs ranked 11th in total defense during the regular season. They have given up exactly 20 points in both playoff games.

The Eagles ranked third for the regular season in total offense and scoring offense, finishing 1.1 points per game behind the Chiefs for the top spot. Philadelphia has scored 69 points in two playoff games. The Eagles are only averaging 342.5 yards per game in the playoffs. For the regular season, that would've ranked 16th in the league.

Hurts hasn't been asked to do much in the postseason. The 24-year-old has thrown for fewer than 155 yards and rushed for fewer than 40 yards in both games. When Hurts returned from his shoulder injury in Week 18, he completed just 57.1% of his passes and was held to 13 yards on the ground.

Hurts has admitted that he isn't close to being 100% healthy. It might still be the case in the Super Bowl. While Mahomes has shown that he can be an elite passer with a sprained ankle, it remains to be seen if Hurts can be the elite dual-threat quarterback that he was during the Eagles' 14-1 start.

The Super Bowl should be a close game that comes down to the wire. It's hard to bet against Mahomes in such a scenario.

Super Bowl 2023 Prediction: Chiefs over Eagles, 24-20