2019 NBA Finals Updated Projections: Lakers, Warriors, Celtics, Rockets Chances
The Golden State Warriors will always be the favorites to make the NBA Finals but there are some interesting takeaways as a whole from ESPN's updated projections.
ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) preseason projections show the Warriors having a 55 percent chance of making the NBA Finals and a 40 percent chance of winning a fourth championship in five years.
However, their championship percentage has dropped by 18 percent compared to 2017/18 despite the addition of DeMarcus Cousins. Some factors leading to this are how the Bay Area side performed in the regular season.
They fell short of the 63 games ESPN had predicted them to win as they finished as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with a 58-24 record, albeit they had plenty of injury problems toward the end of the season.
In addition, they were extremely close to getting eliminated in the Western Conference Finals to the Houston Rockets, especially as they were trailing 3-2 but had the good fortune of Chris Paul missing out on the decisive last two games. The Rockets, meanwhile, have an 18 percent chance of making the NBA Finals.
A third factor could be the addition of LeBron James to the Los Angeles Lakers, strengthening the already-stacked Western Conference. While the addition of James has made the Lakers playoff contenders, bookmakers do not see them finishing above the Warriors, Rockets or Oklahoma City Thunder.
However, they have a five percent chance of making the NBA Finals, representing their best shot since 2012. The Lakers notably finished the regular season with a 35-47 record in 2017/18.
The Akron native's departure from the Eastern Conference has also had a huge effect for teams such as the Boston Celtics. Expected to make the NBA Finals last year as well, they have a 38 percent possibility this year while their chances of winning a first championship since 2008 have increased from 12 percent to 18 percent.
The departure of James played a huge role but also the breakout performance of rookie Jayson Tatum as well as Boston's showing in the playoffs last season without the likes of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, both of whom will be available now.
The Toronto Raptors have underperformed in the playoffs but also benefit from James' departure, while the addition of Kawhi Leonard sees them having a 25 percent possibility of making the Finals and a 10 percent likelihood of winning a first-ever championship, tied with the Rockets who also have a 10 percent chance — their best chance of winning since the 2008/09 season.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers have a 24 percent chance of making the NBA Finals with a nine percent likelihood of winning a championship while the Thunder are outside contenders like the Lakers, with an eight percent possibility of making the final two and a three percent chance to win a championship.
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