30-Foot Asteroid Has 1-In-16 Chance Of Hitting Earth In 75 Years

The European Space Agency (ESA) has identified the asteroid with the greatest chance of hitting Earth. Based on the space agency’s calculations, the potential collision between the planet and the approaching asteroid might happen in 2095.

The dangerous asteroid has been listed by ESA in its Risk List. According to the agency, the list features all known asteroids that have non-zero impact probabilities. "The Risk List is a catalogue of all objects for which a non-zero impact probability has been detected. Each entry contains details on the Earth approach posing the highest risk of impact," ESA describes of the list.

Topping the ESA’s Risk List is an asteroid that has been identified as 2010 RF12. According to the ESA, this asteroid’s chances of hitting Earth is one out of 16.

Should there be a collission, it will happen between 2010 RF12 and Earth may happen on Sept. 5, 2095. During this time, the asteroid is expected to fly past Earth from a very dangerous distance of only 0.0000114 astronomical units or roughly 1,060 miles away.

Various factors in space, such as the gravitational pull of large objects and the heat emitted by the Sun, could affect 2010 RF12’s trajectory and send it crashing to Earth. Given the very short distance between the Earth and the asteroid, a slight nudge on the space rock would easily send it to a direct collision course with the planet.

With a diameter of only 30 feet, 2010 RF12 will most likely not reach Earth’s surface if it hits the planet. Instead, the asteroid will probably burn up in Earth’s atmosphere and explode in mid-air.

However, this does not automatically mean that 2010 RF12 is not a dangerous asteroid. Previous records have shown that mid-air explosions caused by asteroids can still be very dangerous and harmful.

One particular example is the incident caused by an asteroid that detonated over Russia in 2013. According to reports, the space rock, which was about 66 feet long, exploded at an altitude of 97,000 feet over a populated region known as Chelyabinsk Oblast.

The energy generated by the explosion was equivalent to about 30 atomic bombs. Although most of the energy was absorbed by Earth’s atmosphere, it was still powerful enough to damage around 7,000 buildings on the ground. The incident also left about 1,500 people injured.