Airline Industry Not Expected To Recover From Pandemic Until 2024

As airlines reels from multiple layoffs and flight schedule reductions amid the coronavirus pandemic, the industry isn’t expected to recover until 2024, according to a report Thursday from Airlines for America, an organization that represents the major U.S. airlines.

The despairing news is only further compounded by announcements from American and United that they will lay off thousands of workers as their federal aid runs out at the end of September.

According to Airlines for America, air travel demand won’t return to pre-pandemic levels for years. The organization said in a report that U.S. passenger volumes remain down 70% from a year ago for the week ending Aug. 30. It added that domestic travel is down 67%, and international travel is down 86% for the same timeframe.

“We don’t see any significant increase in demand. We don’t see it fully rebounding until 2024,” Airlines for America CEO Nicholas Calio told reporters on a call Thursday. “We are doing everything we can to keep our companies afloat. People talk about the situation being dire. It is dire. Right now, we’re fighting for survival. No bones about it.”

Compounding the issue is the number of U.S. and international airlines that have filed for bankruptcy or shut down during the pandemic. The organization cited airlines such as Compass Airlines, ExpressJet (pending Sept. 30), Miami Air International, RavnAir Group, Trans States Airlines, Aeromexico, Air Mauritius, Alitalia, Avianca, Comair, Flybe, German Airways, Germanwings, LATAM, South African, Thai Airways, TAME, and Virgin Australia.

Airlines that have remained operating have also drastically reduced their flight schedules, making it difficult for travelers to find routes to the destinations they are looking to fly to, Calio said.

Airlines for America also noted that passenger volumes have decreased by 70% compared to a year ago, with bookings down 73%, and booked revenues down 86%.

Calio told reporters that more federal aid is needed to help the airlines survive the pandemic. He said: “Our hope is that there will be more aid coming from the government in terms of frankly, a new CARES Act.”

Under the CARES Act, Congress provided $25 billion in loans to the airlines, with the stipulation that pay and jobs remain until Oct. 1, which Calio said was not a bailout but simply a “pass through, a jobs bill.”

The U.S. has reported over 6.1 million coronavirus cases and over 186,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.