Republicans Appear Likely To Lose U.S. House Seat That's Been Safe For Nearly 15 Years

The balance of power in the U.S. House could be affected by a race in Alabama where a Democrat appears poised to win an open seat created by redistricting.

Democrat Shomari Figures and Republican Caroleene Dobson are vying for the 2nd Congressional District seat that's been controlled by the GOP since 2011, after Democrat Bobby Bright was ousted following a single term.

University of Alabama political science professor Marissa Grayson told WTVM-TV that she expected voter turnout to be higher than for other House races in the Yellowhammer State.

"Congressional District 2 can change potentially the makeup of the House or who controls the House and so that race is really important, and we're seeing a whole lot of money being poured into that race compared to other races in Alabama," Grayson said Friday.

Polls have consistently shown Figures leading Dobson, with the most recent survey putting him 5 percentage points ahead, according to ABC News' Five Thirty Eight website.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report also says the race is "likely" to be won by Figures.

The 2nd Congressional District seat is now held by two-term Republican Rep. Barry Moore.

But he's running for reelection in the 1st Congressional District after a court-ordered redrawing of Alabama's congressional maps.

That directive came in response to allegations that the GOP-controlled state government illegally diluted the power of Black voters through gerrymandering.

Last year, the Supreme Court voted 5-4 to uphold a ruling that found the old maps likely violated the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

The race between Figures and Dobson is considered the only competitive House race in Alabama, according to the Alabama Reflector news website.

The GOP now holds six of Alabama's U.S. seven House seats and a Figures victory would trim that edge to 5-2.

It could also eat into the narrow GOP majority in the House, where Republicans now hold 220 seats, Democrats hold 212 and there are three vacancies.

The Cook Political Report rates control of the House a toss-up, with 22 races too close to predict.