Alabama vs. Cincinnati Prediction: Crimson Tide Covers The Spread, Wins 2021 Playoff Game

The college football playoff game between No. 1 Alabama and No. 4 Cincinnati isn’t expected to be particularly close. The Crimson Tide is a massive 13.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks, suggesting that it isn’t difficult to make a prediction regarding which team will win Friday’s Cotton Bowl and advance to the CFP National Championship Game.

It is with good reason that Alabama is given better than -500 odds to defeat Cincinnati in the CFP semifinals. Considering the way Nick Saban’s team has played in both 2021 and recent playoff appearances, the Crimson Tide could cover the spread with ease.

Alabama has the best head coach and player in all of college football. Quarterback Bryce Young won the Heisman Trophy after throwing for 4,322 yards, 43 touchdown passes and four interceptions. Saban has led the Crimson Tide to the CFP seven times during its eight years in existence, winning three national titles.

In five of the last six years, Alabama has won a CFP semifinal game. All of those victories have come by double digits and in dominant fashion.

The Crimson Tide has won its last five semifinal matchups by an average score of 32-12. The only time Alabama won by fewer than 17 points or allowed more than 14 points was its 45-34 win over Oklahoma in the 2018 Orange Bowl. Alabama led by three scores for more than half the game, and the Sooners made the final score closer with a late touchdown run by Heisman winner Kyler Murray.

Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder has played very well, but he’s no Murray.

The Bearcats have impressive wins over Notre Dame and Houston during their undefeated season. Neither of those teams is on the same level as Alabama. There’s a reason why Cincinnati is the first team that plays in a conference outside of the Power Five to reach the CFP.

Cincinnati has gone 13-0 on the strength of one of the nation’s best defenses. Georgia’s top-ranked defense, however, was no match for Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Young threw for 421 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-24 victory over the previously undefeated Bulldogs, who hadn’t given up more than 17 points in a game this season.

Eight of Alabama’s 12 wins have come by at least 17 points.

Prediction: Alabama over Cincinnati, 34-14.