The final episodes of “American Idol” Season 19 are finally here, and with them will come a new winner. With the show returning to some level of normalcy after Season 18 was widely disrupted and went all-virtual due to the Pandemic, fans will be crowning one of three finalists—and one of the group could be the one who is most likely to win.

With the final three among the most talented trio the show has seen in the last round in a while, the competition could really go to any of them. However, here’s how we think things will play out.

Chayce Beckham-3rd

Chayce Beckham American Idol
Chayce Beckham is a finalist on Season 19 of “American Idol.” ABC/Eric McCandless

While Beckham has been a steady performer throughout the competition and has some advantage as a country performer (a genre that has traditionally fared well on music competition shows), he has a few fewer followers than one of his fellow finalists on social media, which can be an indicator of a few fewer fans, and when it comes to views on YouTube, he falls far behind the other two, who both average 100s of thousands of more views. With all of that in factored in, he seems to potentially be the least likely winner.

Grace Kinstler-2nd

Grace Kinstler American Idol
Grace Kinstler is a finalist on Season 19 of “American Idol.” ABC/Eric McCandless

Kinstler has impressed with her vocals all season and leads when it comes to the number of YouTube views she has, averaging more than 300,000 per video. Pollsters also seem to be placing her as a potential winner as well, keeping her neck-in-neck with our proposed winner, meaning she could pull an upset. Still, of the three finalists, she has the smallest following on social media—which could mean that she has a few fewer fans actively following—and rooting—for her to win.

Willie Spence-WINNER

Willie Spence American Idol
Willie Spence is a finalist on Season 19 of “American Idol.”  ABC/Eric McCandless

Spence has been the most consistent performer of the three throughout the season and was an early favorite, and he seems highly likely to be the one to take the win. With the highest number of social media followers, (he has 300,000 more followers on Instagram than both Beckham and Kinstler), a comparable number of YouTube views, and more polls skewing in his favor—he seems like a clear favorite. His win would also be a crowning achievement for the show, as he would be the first Black male to win since Ruben Studdard—who took the title over Clay Aiken in Season 2.

The “American Idol” Season 19 finale airs Sunday, May 23 at 8 p.m. EDT on ABC.

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