Analysts Weigh-In On Spot Bitcoin ETF Rejection Report, Maintain Jan. 8-10 Approval Timeline

The crypto market saw heavy losses Wednesday after a report surfaced online claiming that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will reject the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications this month. Industry analysts and experts weighed in on the issue following the report and maintained their earlier prediction that the regulator's decision will likely be announced between Jan. 8 and 10.

After kicking off the year with an impressive price surge, Bitcoin experienced a sharp price drop to around $40,000 Wednesday after Matrixport, a crypto financial services platform, published its research titled "Why the SEC will REJECT Bitcoin Spot ETFs again," suggesting that no approval of spot Bitcoin ETF filings will happen this month.

The research created a market shakeup, causing Bitcoin to erase its gains from the previous day and trade in the red zone.

Industry analysts and experts, however, had a contrasting forecast from Matrixport's research and maintained that the highly anticipated crypto investment vehicle is most likely getting announced between Monday and Wednesday next week.

In response to the research, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that they have not heard anything suggesting that the SEC will not approve the applications.

"We have heard nothing to indicate anything but approval but I want to give the guy benefit of doubt so I'm asking if he has any sources or if he just speculating. He seems to be bitcoin bull and recently tweeted "executives" said approval likely. So unsure why he flipped," his post on X read.

According to Balchunas, saying the SEC will reject the applications is the same as saying several multiple mainstream news reporters with insider sources are wrong as well.

"At this point saying SEC rejecting it isn't just going against @JSeyff and I like it was in the early days, now you basically saying multiple mainstream news reporters w multiple sources on inside of this also have it wrong too. Not saying it's imposs (again we still 'only' at 90%) but it overturns a LOT of good intel," the ETF analyst said in a follow-up post.

Another Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst, James Seyffart, said, "January 8th - January 10th has been the window I'm watching and will remain the window I'm focused on."

Finance lawyer Scott Johnson reminded the community of what the SEC did with Hashdex and Franklin Templeton's applications.

"Reminder: the SEC in November delayed Franklin/Hashdex applications a full 24 BDs before their second deadline (prior record for any BTC app since 2018 was just 11 BDs (NYDIG)). The only rationale for such a move was to align comment periods for potential simultaneous approval," Johnson said.

Bitcoin was trading in the red zone at $43,112.73 with a 24-hour trading volume up by 53.20% at $47.27 billion as of 3:50 a.m. ET on Thursday.

Bitcoin's latest price action represents a 4.91% dip in its value on the day and a 0.50% loss in the last seven days.

Data from CoinMarketCap shows that Bitcoin's current circulating supply stands at 19.59 million BTC and its market cap is at $840.43 billion.