Apple iPhone 11, Pro Demand: Analyst Predicts 75M Unit Sales

Apple's Kaiann Drance talks about the new iPhone 11 during a launch event on Apple's Cupertino, California campus GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / JUSTIN SULLIVAN

A noted analyst believes that Apple will sell more iPhone units than he thought earlier.

Famed TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes Apple will sell up to 75 million iPhone and iPhone 11 Pro units in 2019. In a research note seen by Apple Insider, the analyst said he believes Cupertino will be able to sell 70 to 75 million units, which is higher than his previous estimation: between 65 to 70 million units.

Kuo said U.S. consumers tend to purchase more iPhone 11 Pro units compared to the cheaper iPhone 11. Buyers in the U.S. show the most loyalty for Apple’s high-end iPhone model, benefit from trade-in programs that seek to encourage buyers to upgrade to newer units, and have a variety of zero-interest installment programs that make buying the iPhone 11 Pro even more enticing.

Despite that, Kuo said the demand for the lower-end iPhone 11 is still high in the U.S. market. The demand for Apple’s lower-end iPhone is higher in China, though.

The analyst sees the iPhone 11 as an “excellent upgrade choice” for iPhone 6 and 7 users in China, especially because of its aggressive pricing. The iPhone 11 is priced at $699 in the U.S., $50 lower than the iPhone XR released last year. Chinese consumers see the iPhone 11 as a more viable upgrade option compared to the Pro models that cost hundreds of dollars more.

Kuo added that he doesn’t expect Apple to change the prices of its products come Dec. 15, when tariffs related to the U.S.-China trade war are placed on its iPhones.

The analyst believes that Apple is less likely to increase the prices of its iPhones in response to the tariff. Instead, the Cupertino tech giant, he believes, is more likely to choose to absorb the pricing and take a hit to profits. This prediction, Apple Insider noted, likely came from Apple’s decision to keep selling newer Apple Watch models at the same price range year-on-year.

Apple unveiled its new iPhone 11 lineup during its Sept. 10 event, revealing the specs of each of the three models. The lower-priced iPhone 11, which succeeds the iPhone XR, has two rear cameras. The higher-end iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max, succeeding the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max, each have three rear cameras and sell for at least $999 and $1,099 respectively.