Arizona Polls: How Republicans Trump, McSally Are Doing Against Democrats Biden, Kelly

Democratic nominee Joe Biden has a big lead on Republican President Donald Trump in the key swing state of Arizona, while Democrat Mark Kelly also leads incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally, in a poll released Monday.

The New York Times/Siena College survey shows Biden ahead of Trump by 8 points in Arizona, 49%-41%. Kelly has an even wider 11-point lead over McSally, 50%-39%. The survey of 655 likely voters was taken from Oct. 1-3 and has a margin of error of 4.2 points.

In 2016, Trump won Arizona by 3.5 points over Hillary Clinton, 48.08%-44.58%. Third parties played a key role in 2016, with 4.1% of the vote going to the Libertarian Party and 1.3% of the vote going to the Green Party.

Trump may have a more difficult test in 2020. An Arizona law passed in 2018 makes it harder for the Green Party and Libertarian Party to show up on the ballot.

The New York Times/Siena College poll was taken just ahead of early voting. The early in-person voting period for Arizonans starts on Wednesday, Oct. 7, and continues through Oct. 30.

Registered voters will also begin receiving mail-in ballots on Wednesday. Voters have the option to request a ballot by 5 p.m. on Oct. 24.

Trump's handling of the coronavirus crisis, along with demographic shifts, may hurt his chances in November. If Biden is victorious in Arizona, it would be the first time a Democratic presidential candidate won the state since 1996.

Biden is drawing strong support from groups such as young voters, women and Hispanics. He is leading Trump by 9 points in Maricopa County, where the state capital Phoenix is located.

“It used to be that in Maricopa County, if you put an ‘R’ in front of your name, you’d win,” Chuck Coughlin, a Phoenix-based Republican strategist told the New York Times. Coughlin said that nowadays “that is not the case.”

While Biden appears to be gaining ground on Trump, Kelly, a former astronaut, is posing a formidable challenge to McSally, a former military pilot. McSally began her Senate tenure in January 2019 after Gov. Doug Ducey appointed her to the open seat.

McSally and Kelly will meet Tuesday for their first televised debate. McSally has attacked Kelly for ties to China, while Kelly has run on a platform of protecting the Affordable Care Act and preserving Arizona’s environment.

The Democrats will need to take three to four seats to win back the Senate, depending on whether Biden wins. Some other promising races for Democrats include Maine, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, Montana, Georgia and South Carolina.