Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: A Widening War Would Engulf Russia, Turkey, Iran In Complex Web Of Ties

As Armenia and Azerbaijan apparently rejected calls by France, Russia and the U.S. to halt their violent clashes in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, worries mounted the conflict could escalate into a full-blown war and drag other countries into it.

The death toll has now exceeded 100 as the Russia, France and the U.S. have called for a ceasefire. Russia has also offered to mediate talks between the combatants.

“We call for an immediate cessation of hostilities between the relevant military forces,” said a joint French, Russian and U.S. statement.

The Kremlin separately called on the “warring sides” to “de-escalate tensions and show maximum restraint.”

The conflict centers on Nagorno-Karabakh, a region of Azerbaijan that is controlled by ethnic Armenians. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh broke away from Azerbaijan -- the ensuing war killed some 30,000 people in the early 1990s.

A ceasefire was reached in 1994, but Nagorno-Karabakh remains in limbo -- it is not recognized as an independent republic by any international government. While Nagorno-Karabakh is still officially considered a part of Azerbaijan, its dominant ethnic Armenian population does not accept Azeri sovereignty. The Armenian government, meanwhile, supports its brethren in Nagorno-Karabakh while still not officially recognizing it as an independent republic.

Foreign countries are watching developments in the remote area,

France, Russia and the U.S. serve as co-chairs of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Minsk Group, which was established in 1992 to find a peaceful resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.

However, Turkey has raised the stakes in the simmering dispute by expressing its support for Azerbaijan and rejecting any participation by the U.S., France and Russia in the matter.

In a speech to the Turkish parliament on Thursday, President Tayyip Erdogan said: “Given that the [U.S.], Russia and France have neglected this problem for nearly 30 years, it is unacceptable that they are involved in a search for a ceasefire.”

Erdogan also said peace will come to Nagorno-Karabakh only when the “Armenian occupiers” withdraw from the region.

"Turkey continues to stand with the friendly and brotherly Azerbaijan with all its facilities and heart," Erdogan said Monday.

Muslim Turkey is a close ally of Muslim-majority Azerbaijan while Russia has a military base in Christian-majority Armenia.

Turkey has nonetheless denied reports by France that it has sent mercenaries from Syria to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia and Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh have also accused Turkey of deploying its F-16 fighter jets in Nagorno-Karabakh – another claim denied by the Turks.

The Armenian Foreign Affairs Ministry claimed Azerbaijan is receiving advisers and weapons, including drones, from Ankara.

France, which itself has a population of some 600,000 Armenians, has long criticized Turkey for failing to admit the atrocities it committed against Armenians during 1915 – when as many as 2 million Armenians may have been slaughtered by the Ottoman Turks.

Now fears are mounting the current conflict will explode into a wider war, engulfing powerful neighbors Russia, Turkey and perhaps even Iran.

"We need to prepare for a long-term war," said Nagorno-Karabakh Armenian separatist leader Arayik Harutyunyan, France24 reported. "The real enemy is Turkey.”

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has warned his military will not end fighting until Armenian forces are fully withdrawn from Nagorno-Karabakh.

Meanwhile, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said it was not "very appropriate" to discuss peace negotiations "at a time of intensive hostilities.”

With no easing of rhetoric, war becomes a real possibility.

"We are definitely very close to seeing a large-scale war, possibly even on a regional scale," said Olesya Vartanyan of the International Crisis Group, a think tank based in Brussels.

Vartanyan tweeted: "There was a need for a proactive international mediation. Many found reasons to OK this attack. If they stay silent now, expect a real war."

But Russia also has good relations with Azerbaijan, a country rich in energy resources – with 7 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and huge amounts of natural gas -- and would prefer not to take any sides in a war.

"Right now, the most important thing is to cease hostilities and not try to figure out who's right and who's wrong," Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier this week.

Erdogan and Putin already have difficult relations – among other things, each supports opposing forces in ongoing wars in Syria and Libya.

In addition, the U.S. also has fairly benevolent relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

"We have a lot of good relationships in that area," President Donald Trump said on Sunday. "We'll see if we can stop [a war]."

Vadim Mukhanov, a Caucasus expert at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, told the Meduza news website: "What we're seeing after the first day of escalation is that armor, aviation, heavy artillery and drones are being used, which suggests that this wasn't spontaneous but a well-planned operation. If this conflict isn't stopped through serious outside pressure, then war will come, which would be a catastrophe. It would send ripples through the entire North Caucasus region and affect all major players, including Russia and Turkey."

James Stavridis, a retired U.S. Navy admiral and former supreme allied commander of NATO, wrote in an op-ed in Bloomberg, that “what may seem to many Westerners a minor clash in a remote corner of the world actually has significant implications for regional security, energy markets and the ambitions of two problematic strongmen [Russian President Vladimir Putin and Erdogan].”

Stavridis also cautioned that with the U.S. and Europe distracted by pressing local matters, the chances of a peaceful settlement over Nagorno-Karabakh are “bleak.”

“Perhaps the U.S., Russia and Turkey, working together, could convince the two sides to turn away from the catastrophic path they are headed down,” he offered.

Iran’s role in the renewed Armenia-Azerbaijan clash remains a mystery.

While Iran has long had good relations with its neighbor Azerbaijan – a fellow Shiite Muslim nation – some analysts say Teheran actually may be supporting Armenia instead.

“Generally speaking, Iran appears to be closer to Armenia in its relations with both countries,” Bulent Aras, professor of international relations at Istanbul Policy Center in Sabanci University told TRT World.

Aras cited, among other things, Iran’s good relations with Armenian ally Moscow and its trade ties with Yerevan.

Another factor is the growing nationalistic fervor among Iran’s own Azerbaijani communities – whom Iran calls “Azeri Turks.”

“Increasing Turkish nationalism [among the Azeri Turks] in Iran has been seen as a serious political problem by Iran,” Aras said. “Connections and relations between the country’s north [where a large Azeri Turkish population lives] and Azerbaijan have been an important factor in Tehran’s political problems with Azerbaijan.”

Indeed, some Azeris refer to northern Iran as “southern Azerbaijan” – suggesting a political union between the regions.

“In Iran, due to [its] enormous Turkish [Azeri] population, there has historically been a political fear that two Azerbaijans, Baku [capital of Azerbaijan] and Tabriz [capital of “southern Azerbaijan” currently in Iran] might join at some point,” said Esref Yalinkilicli, a political analyst for Eurasia. “On the other hand, in Azerbaijani political memory and foreign policy, the idea of Greater Azerbaijan has always been an important factor.”

Yalinkilicli added: “Iran’s traditional Armenia policy has long been a balancing act against both Azerbaijan and Turkey across southern Caucasia. As a result, behind-the-scenes, Iran backs Armenia.”

Not only is the Azeri language similar to Turkish, but Turkey and Azerbaijan have signed a $7 billion natural gas pipeline project deal that will transport Azeri natural gas across Turkey to Europe.

Iran has even more reasons to support Christian Armenia.

“Reasons like land disputes between the two countries [Iran and Azerbaijan], increasing nationalism among Azeri Turks [in Iran], issues regarding how to share natural sources of the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan’s close relations with Israel [Iran’s archenemy] and a political desire to balance Turkey-Azerbaijan relations occasionally lead to some tensions and crisis between Baku and Tehran,” said Aras.

Aras warned, however, in the event of a deepening war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Iran’s response should be closely watched.

“There is a [small] possibility that Iran will militarily intervene in the conflict,” he said. “But if there is a clear development in favor of Azerbaijan, it could be said that some political groups in Iran would have serious discomfort about that. But there is a little possibility that Iran would reveal that discomfort in its official policy.”