Attacks On Ships Put Focus On India But Modi Knows How To Walk The Tightrope

As Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen step up attacks on ships in the Red Sea, India is finding itself drawn into the vortex of geopolitical hostilities.

In the latest such attack, the U.S. said a Sunday attack by Houthi rebels in the southern Red Sea had hit an Indian-flagged vessel. But later in the day, the Indian Navy clarified that the vessel, the MV Saibaba, was flying under the flag of Gabon although the 25 crew members on board were Indian nationals. Gabon is a country in central Africa.

That the attack came on the heels of a drone strike much closer home has not helped. On Saturday, the Indian navy rushed to help the Liberian-flagged Chem Pluto which was hit by a drone about 200 nautical miles from the western Porbandar coast. The ship was disabled after its power generation system was hit, Indian officials said.

The Pentagon alleged that the drone was launched from Iran. Tehran has denied any role in the attack on the MV Saibaba, Kyodo reported.

Politics of Red Sea attacks

The Houthis, a tribal militia that controls most of Yemen, say their attacks on Red Sea shipping are in response to Israel's bombardment of Gaza. The attacks have boosted the Houthis' profile across the Mideast, where Arab populations are angry with the U.S. for shiedling Israel as it unleashes a brutal attack on Gaza. Nearly 12% of the world trade passes through the waterway.

Making the Red Sea and Suez Canal a risky route for container travel will force ships to sail around the cape of Africa, roiling already stressed global supply chains. It will also mean that backups at ports will pile up. The higher costs and delays will hit the economies of western countries that are already struggling under inflation and the impact from the Russia-Ukraine war.

The realpolitik at play ...

India has been a staunch backer of Palestine for most of its independent history. New Delhi recognized the PLO as the true representative of the Palestinian people in 1974, the first non-Arab state to do so.

But since 1992, when India made a paradigm shift in its foreign policy to establish diplomatic ties with Israel, New Delhi has slowly toned down its pro-Palestine stance. India, though, has continued to be a prominent backer of the Palestinian cause, mostly due to the necessity of maintaining its strong ties with Gulf nations, which host a major chunk of the Indian diaspora. More than 2.5 million Indians work in the United Arab Emirates alone.

India-Israel ties got a boost when Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, as both countries drew on their shared history as victims of Islamic terrorism. India sees itself in a similar predicament to that of Israel, with cross-border terrorism seen as a common threat.

Still, India has preferred to walk the tight rope rather than throw itself behind either of the parties in the current conflict in the Mideast. New Delhi condemned the Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas, but also called for humanitarian pauses — though not a ceasefire — as Israel pounds Gaza. It has sent humanitarian assistance to Gaza via Egypt; and it has voted in favor of five of the six resolutions criticizing Israel at the United Nations. India has also not banned Hamas despite Israeli pressure.

Retired Wing Commander Praful Bakshi described the attack on the Chem Pluto, which happened closer to India, as a security concern. He told news agency ANI that the incident was surprising because "the action that was going on around Israel and Gaza, the Red Sea, etc., is now spilling over into the Arabian Sea." It doesn't augur well for the security of this area, he said.

More such attacks could add to the pressure on India to take steps to protects its shipping. But the Modi government may not want to be seen as joining a U.S. led naval coalition which ultimately is seen as aimed at protecting Israel's economy — the Houthis have said they will target only Israeli ships or ships sailing to and from Israeli ports.

The Indian government has yet to make a statement on the ship attacks, or about lending its naval muscle to any policing efforts.

U.S. efforts to pull together the naval task force, called Operation Prosperity Guardian, have already suffered a setback as Washington's western allies including Italy, Spain and France have refused to send their ships.

Despite drawing India closer to the U.S., Modi has shown how India can deftly navigate geopolitical minefields following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite initial threats from Washington, India took advantage of Russia's discounted oil, with its oil imports from Russia surging from just 2% in 2021 to nearly 20% by mid-2022.

The Biden administration, needing to keep India on its side as it tries to contain a rising China, quietly accepted the shifting global power dynamic and backed down. The Houthi attack-spurred Red Sea initiative could end up no differently, as India hones its skills to placate friends and foes without burning bridges.