Australian Dollar Outlook 30/6/2010
Australia: The Australian Dollar fell two US cents as markets reacted to evidence of a slowing in the global economic recovery. The AUD is trading at USD0.8500, JPY75.25, EUR0.6970 and GBP0.5645 as Chinese economic indicators showed a dampening affect occurring. Base metals fell with nickel 7.6% lower, aluminium down 4.6% and copper down 5.5%. Safe have buying in gold saw it increase $3.40 to US $1,242 per ounce. The Chinese stock markets started their downward slide yesterday with the Shanghai market down 4.3%. The European session led to further falls with banking stocks hit hardest in the European session as the ECB refused to extend Thursday’s expiration of a EUR 442bn bank lending program. Inter-bank lending rates leapt to 9 month highs while credit swap spreads for Romania and Croatia blew out as the European Sovereign Debt Crisis continues to weigh on sentiment. This new round of risk aversion has led to the somewhat predictable result of the AUD being sold off as it intrinsically tied in with China’s growth outlook, given China is Australia’s largest trading partner. Economic events due domestically today include new home sales for May, skilled job vacancies and private sector credit for May from the RBA. AUD forecast range is 0.8450 and 0.8540 today.
Majors: The US Dollar was supported as investors sought safe haven status while US Treasury bonds were also in high demand. China' Conference Board economic index increased by 0.3% in April instead of by 1.7% as originally estimated and the selling on financial markets continued after a report showed consumer confidence in the US slumped in June following three monthly rises. The Chinese data was not a massive surprise in all reality, as there has been some weakness (slow down) exhibited in some previous data releases and there is also the continuing talk of the Yuan being revalued significantly, over time, to rebalance trade conditions between China and the rest of the world. The Dow Jones was down 2.65%, while the broader-based S&P 500 index was down 3.1%. In Europe, surveys are support is building to change the currency of choice away from the Euro back to the Deutschemark given the unpopular multi-billion-euro bailout for Greece.