Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 2018: Prediction, Betting Odds For NFL Week 4

The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1-1) host the Baltimore Ravens (2-1) on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season. It’s a key matchup in the race for the AFC North, which could be much more competitive than it was expected to be at the start of the year.

Pittsburgh escaped Tampa Bay on Monday night to finally pick up their first win of the year. The win allowed the Steelers to remain tied for last place with the Cleveland Browns, who they weren’t able to defeat in Week 1. Baltimore and the Cincinnati Bengals are tied atop the division, though Cincinnati is technically in first place because of a win over the Ravens in Week 2.

Aside from that loss, Baltimore has played as well as anyone in the entire league. They had the biggest win of the year when the blew the doors off the Buffalo Bills 47-3 in the season opener. The Ravens topped the Broncos 27-14 last week, winning handily despite going 7-0 before they could blink because of a blocked punt.

Baltimore has looked like the better team through three weeks, though Pittsburgh is still a three-point favorite, according to the latest betting odds at OddsShark.

The over/under is 50.5, indicating that this could be a different Steelers-Ravens matchup than we are used to seeing. The rivals have met 23 times over the last decade, and the final score has totaled 43 or fewer points on all but five occasions. Their last matchup came at Heinz Field on Dec. 10 when Pittsburgh won 39-38.

This doesn’t appear to be the same Steelers’ team that ranked fifth in total defense a season ago and has consistently been among the NFL’s best defenses. You can move the ball against this team, which hasn’t been the same since Ryan Shazier suffered his serious spinal injury.

Opposing teams have scored 28.8 points per game against Pittsburgh over their last eight games, including the playoffs. Since holding Tyrod Taylor and an inept Browns’ offense to 21 points in the season opener, the Steelers have given up 69 points in two games. Pittsburgh ranks 24 in opponents’ yards per play. Even as Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions last week, he still managed to throw for 411 yards and torch a poor Pittsburgh secondary for much of the game.

Joe Flacco and the Ravens should have plenty of success Monday night. The quarterback has played very well in Baltimore’s two wins, taking advantage of a much-improved receiving corps.

The Steelers will score plenty of points, as well. Without Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh is still second in total offense and nearly scoring 30 points per game. Ben Roethlisberger is second in passing yards and on pace for another Pro Bowl season, even if he does throw a bunch of interceptions every so often.

Maybe Roethlisberger will make a few costly mistakes against Baltimore. The Ravens are holding quarterbacks to a 67.6 passer rating, and they rank first in opponents’ yards per play.

Just about every game between Pittsburgh and Baltimore seems to be highly competitive. Five of their last six matchups have been decided by one possession.

The Ravens have lost to the Steelers by more than a field goal three times in their last 15 meetings, and one of those defeats came by just four points. Baltimore is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games when playing Pittsburgh, per OddsShark. The Steelers have covered the spread only once in their last five home games against the Ravens.

Baltimore has the league’s best kicker in Justin Tucker, and Chris Boswell has already missed three field goals and two extra points for the Steelers this season. Sunday’s game could very well come down to the final possession, and the Ravens are your best bet as the underdog in a close game.

Prediction: Baltimore over Pittsburgh, 27-24

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