Battleground State Voters Narrowly Oppose Trump Impeachment, Possibly Spelling Trouble For Democrats

It’s not news that Americans, in general, appear evenly split on their views of the looming impeachment of President Donald Trump. However, a handful of surveys conducted in key battleground states show opposition to the Trump impeachment edges out support, albeit narrowly, and this could spell trouble for Democrats in 2020.

Polling conducted by The Washington Post over October and November in states considered crucial to winning the 2020 presidential election next fall – Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Wisconsin – reveals 51 percent of voters there disapprove of impeaching Trump. Support in these states is at 44 percent.

Though the gap between these camps is narrow, it is important to note that it is flipped from the national polling numbers, which show that support for impeachment is slightly higher than opposition.

Why are these findings so important? For these battleground states, it illustrates how the as-of-yet-to-be-decided Democratic presidential nominee will likely be facing an uphill battle to win these key electoral votes. Even if Congress does successfully impeach and remove President Trump from office – which is unlikely, given the Republican-controlled Senate does not appear prepared to vote to remove Trump – the Republican presidential candidate will have the advantage of appealing to voters who don’t approve of the Democrats’ actions.

Polling among independent voters across the nation also spells potential trouble for the Democratic nominee. Per The Washington Post, independents are nearly evenly split on Trump’s impeachment, with 42 percent in support and 44 in opposition.

While impeachment approval polling remains deeply divided along party lines, for Democrats to win the White House, it may prove crucial to convince these independent voters – especially those in the aforementioned battleground states – that, regardless of the outcome, pursuing Trump's removal was justified. Given the fact that the divide in support has not changed significantly following the recently concluded impeachment inquiry hearings, which many experts see as putting Trump and his administration in a poor light, Democrats will likely have to use different tactics to win over the court of public opinion among many Americans.

So far, polling among Democratic primary voters in the battleground states seems to indicate a preference for a moderate candidate, with former Vice-President Joe Biden leading in support in all but one state. Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) are polling closely for second place in these states; however, Warren appears to be edging out Biden in Wisconsin.