Biden vs. Trump Polls: Which Candidate Leads In Swing States Wisconsin, Pennsylvania And Florida?

Early polling in three key battleground states won by President Trump in 2016 show presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with an early lead.

The latest polling averages from Real Clear Politics show Biden at 46.7% support in Wisconsin, compared to Trump’s 44%. In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral college votes, by fewer than 23,000 votes.

Polling averages in Pennsylvania show Biden, who was born in the city of Scranton, with 48% of the vote compared to Trump’s 41.3%. Trump won Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes by edging Hillary Clinton, 48.18% to 47.46%.

In Florida, the averages show Biden at 46.5% compared to Trump’s 43.3%. Florida, which has a total of 29 electoral votes, was a deciding state in George W. Bush's tight victory over Al Gore in 2000. Trump defeated Clinton in Florida, 49% to 47.8%.

The polls numbers may not spell doom for Trump, who had trailed by double digits in some swing states in 2016. While national polls are often reliable, state polls are not.

"Polls showed Hillary Clinton leading, if narrowly, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which had voted Democratic for president six elections running," said a report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research. "Those leads fed predictions that the Democratic ‘blue wall’ would hold. Come Election Day, however, Trump edged out victories in all three."

A recent national poll from the Economist and YouGov, as well as a poll from Harvard CAPS and Harris Insight and Analytics, both show Biden with a 6-point lead over Trump.