KEY POINTS

  • Too many questions remain about the coronavirus to return to normal
  • The pandemic is a "defining moment" for this generation
  • A treatment that's 95% effective will be necessary before people feel comfortable attending large public events

Microsoft founder and philanthropist Bill Gates on Thursday called for global cooperation to defeat the coronavirus pandemic, likening the battle to a world war, “except in this case, we’re all on the same side.”

Gates posted a memo on his blog, noting it’s hard to make sense of everything coming out daily, some of it contradictory, some of it false.

“This is like a world war, except in this case, we’re all on the same side. Everyone can work together to learn about the disease and develop tools to fight it,” Gates said. “I see global innovation as the key to limiting the damage. This includes innovations in testing, treatments, vaccines, and policies to limit the spread while minimizing the damage to economies and well-being.”

He added: “Without some advances in each of these areas, we cannot return to business as usual or stop the virus.” He said before people will feel confident enough to attend bit public gatherings like concerts and sports events, a treatment that’s 95% effective will be needed. Even then, a vaccine still will be needed.

Gates lauded those who have changed their behavior to help stem the spread of coronavirus, noting the exponential growth of cases cannot be halted if people pretend it is no different than any other viral outbreak. He said behavioral changes were necessary, despite the economic cost, which he described as “unprecedented.”

More than 26 million people have lost their jobs in the U.S. since governors began closing nonessential businesses and issuing stay-at home orders in mid-March. Economists have said a global recession is underway and the second quarter contraction could be as large as 40%.

“As we get into the summer, some locations that maintain behavior change will experience exponential decline [in cases]. However, as behavior goes back to normal, some locations will stutter along with persistent clusters of infections and some will go back into exponential growth,” Gates predicted.

President Trump has been pushing states to begin preparations for reopening even though the virus has not peaked in many areas. He took issue, however, with Georgia's plan to reopen nonessential businesses like hair salons and tattoo parlors on Friday.

Gates noted countries that were able to impose stringent isolation measures and conduct extensive testing have not been hit as hard as those that were slow to react. As of noon Thursday, more than 2.6 million infections had been confirmed worldwide, nearly a third of them in the U.S., with more than 185,400 deaths.

“The ability to do testing well explains a lot of the variation. It is impossible to defeat an enemy we cannot see. So testing is critical to getting the disease under control and beginning to reopen the economy,” Gates said.

Scientists still are trying to answer many questions about the disease and why it appears to affect the young less severely than the old. Also, still to be determined is whether the virus is seasonal, when carriers can infect others, which activities are most likely to spread the infection and who is most susceptible.

Gates called the pandemic the “defining moment” for this generation.

“The disease is disproportionately hurting poorer communities and racial minorities. Likewise, the economic impact of the shutdown is hitting low-income, minority workers the hardest,” Gates concluded. “Policymakers will need to make sure that, as the country opens up, the recovery doesn’t make inequality even worse than it already is.”