Bitcoin Rally Hits New Heights, But Analysts Sound Caution Amid Price Surge

The continued price rally of Bitcoin (BTC) has propelled the value of the crypto asset upward, leading the broader crypto community to trade in the green zone. While investors and traders are rejoicing in their profits and expanding their portfolios, analysts advise to ''exercise caution.''

The crypto market, particularly Bitcoin, is poised for a bull run in the coming weeks if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications.

Another contributing factor to the price surge is the upcoming Bitcoin Halving event, set for a few months from now, specifically on April 23, 2024. Based on the patterns observed in previous halvings, this event has historically resulted in robust market performance in the following 12 months.

However, analysts at Bitfinex emphasize the need for investors and traders to exercise caution.

The previous and current weeks have been robust for Bitcoin holders, as the world's first-ever crypto asset reached a peak of $38,000, the highest point since May of last year.

Interestingly, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH RP), which represents the average price of the Short-Term Holder BTC supply valued on the day each coin last transacted on-chain, is around $30,380.

The gap between the current price of Bitcoin and the STH RP, according to Bitfinex analysts, is "at its most pronounced since April 2022."

What does this mean?

"Based on historical performance, such a move in the STH RP month-on-month shows that there is a need to exercise caution," Bifinex analysts said in a report seen by International Business Times.

"Analysis of short-term holder and long-term holder cohorts demonstrate that historically, when there is a $2000 month-on-month change in STH RP, combined with a negative shift in the average buying price of long-term holders (also currently taking place), it suggests the likelihood that a local peak has been reached, potentially to be followed by a retraction to test the STH RP level," the report explained, before adding, "At current levels, this indicates that the price could theoretically fall back to a $30,000 to $31,000 range."

Moreover, the report underlines that investors should take into consideration high market volatility along with substantial market liquidations, especially when making investment decisions.

"It is notable that market volatility is also high: the recent surge to $38,000 was accompanied by significant market liquidations amounting to $491 million just on November 9th – the highest since August 17th. We would suggest that it would be prudent to be cautious in the current conditions," the report emphasizes.

Bitcoin was trading up at $36,820.84 as of 11:43 a.m. ET on Monday, with a 24-hour trading volume up by 24.13% at $15,707,362,291, representing a 0.94% decrease in the last 24 hours and a 4.7% spike over the past seven days.

Data from CoinMarketCap reveals that Bitcoin's total circulating supply stands at 19,541,287 BTC, with its value dipping by 0.91% at a $720,211,014,393 market cap.