Black box funds among losers in SNB shock
Black box computer hedge funds and managers who bet on global markets were likely among those hardest hit by Switzerland's shock intervention on Tuesday to reverse profitable bets on the Swiss franc's safe haven status.
The Swiss National Bank surprised investors with an exchange rate cap, saying it would no longer tolerate a rate below 1.20 francs to the euro and would defend the target by buying other currencies in unlimited quantities.
The news sent the franc tumbling nearly 10 percent against the euro on trading platform EBS. In late trading, the euro soared 8.7 percent versus franc to 1.2047.
Managed futures funds, which latch onto market trends and which have been among the few winning hedge funds strategies in a tough 2011, had hopped on board the franc's appreciation from more than 1.32 versus the euro in April to just above parity last month.
Obviously, any directional fund will be down today, said Axel Merk, who manages the $750 million Merk Hard Currency Fund in Palo Alto, California.
Merk did lose after the SNB move since he had a 1.5 percent exposure on the Swiss franc in his portfolio, but he said he managed to offset those losses by buying the Norwegian crown. In fact, Merk said he bought more crowns last Friday.
The Norwegian crown gained 1.2 percent against the euro on Tuesday.
The SNB move notwithstanding, Merk said he will still buy the Swiss franc, although it may be too early to purchase it right now since the central bank has obvious political backing to implement its target.
But at some point, I will definitely buy it again since the SNB has made the Swiss franc cheaper.
Merk bets against the U.S. dollar, which soared 9.6 percent against the Swiss franc on Tuesday, and is bullish on the euro despite its sovereign debt issues.
And some macro funds -- a strategy made famous by the likes of billionaire George Soros -- may have suffered after profiting this year from bets that the Swiss franc and Australian dollar will rise.
I'm sure it will hurt, said one fund of hedge funds manager who spoke on condition of anonymity.
It's a massive move. It doesn't have to be that big (a position in a fund) to be painful ... CTAs are highly likely to be hit by that. Commodity trading advisors (CTAs) is another term for managed futures funds.
Among computer funds that may have been hit is Man Group's flagship $23.9 billion AHL fund. An AHL fund manager told Bloomberg Television last month it had a small bet on the franc.
Winton Capital, which manages $22.4 billion in assets and whose main fund is up nearly 8 percent so far this year, declined to comment on specific currency movements. Man Group and Bluecrest also declined to comment.
One computer-driven fund manager, who was short the euro versus the franc as the Swiss National Bank announced it was setting a minimum exchange rate target, said his fund has closed out all its positions in the Swiss franc.
As it was a central bank move we decided to square our positions and now have no market exposure to the Swiss franc, he said. We have squared our position in the Swiss franc for the future because we will not be able to capture that risk in the quantitative models.
Other funds profited from the SNB move. Quaesta Capital, a $3-billion currency fund of funds in Zurich, Switzerland, said the currency managers it oversees has gone short Swiss franc this week, posting the biggest outflow as well.
In an earlier interview, Pablo Frei, portfolio manager and senior market analyst at Quaesta, said their currency managers have become concerned about the Swiss franc's overvaluation against the euro.
However, some funds say they have profited. Aviva Investors went long the New Zealand dollar versus the Swiss franc in the past few weeks and has seen an 18 percent move, and has also gone long the Norwegian krone against the franc.
Hardeep Dogra, Currency Fund Manager at Schroder Investment Management in London, said they had been neutral on the franc.
(It was) precisely because of this quandary, Dogra said. (As) much as you like the currency, valuation is a problem and the central bank had been making repeated comments about its position, that it was aiming for some currency weakness.
(Additional reporting by Chris Vellacott, Tommy Wilkes, Nia Williams and Naomi Tajitsu in London; Editing by Diane Craft)
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