Is Brexit Transition Deadline Feasible? European Commission President Has Doubts

The president of the European Commission on Friday questioned the feasibility of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s deadline for working out a trade deal with the European Union.

Britain leaves the EU Jan. 31 but will remain in the customs union and single market to allow for a transition period. Johnson pushed legislation setting a hard Dec. 31, 2020, deadline for working out a trade deal that would free the U.K. from remaining bloc restrictions.

Ursula von der Leyen said she has “serious concerns” about the Johnson’s timeline. She said a two-year transition period would be much more workable.

“It’s not only about negotiating a free trade deal but many other subjects,” von der Leyen said in an interview with the French newspaper les Echos. “It seems to me that on both sides we must ask ourselves seriously if all these negotiations are feasible in such a short time.”

Von der Leyen said any trade deal would have to include an assessment of “comparable production conditions” – the more they diverge, the higher the trade barriers.

Negotiations reportedly are set to begin Jan. 10.

Johnson has said he’s determined to fully separate from the EU by the deadline, whether or not a trade deal is in place. A no-deal Brexit could have a major impact on the European economy.

“Johnson’s government program depends entirely on a strong recovery in business investment and consumer confidence to provide the additional tax revenues he will need to finance his promises of higher public spending,” Anatole Kaletsky, chief economist and co-chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics, said in a MarketWatch opinion piece. “To convert his electioneering success into policy-making credibility, Johnson needs to prove that his ‘fantastic Brexit deal’ really was in Britain’s economic interests – and to do that, he must avoid any abrupt rupture in U.K.-EU economic relations.”

That, Kaletsky said, raises the possibility the December 2020 deadline is not as hard as Johnson has indicated.

However, Andy Stewart, a former Brexit party candidate, told the Express a no-deal Brexit would not have much impact.

“The EU is our biggest trading partner, but it is not the only trading partner,” Stewart said. “And they are not going to stop selling to us or buying from us.”