Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots 2019: Prediction ATS, Odds For Saturday AFC East Game

The Week 16 matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills will decide if the AFC East race extends to the final day of the 2019 NFL regular season.

If New England defeats Buffalo Saturday afternoon at Gillette Stadium, they’ll clinch their 11th consecutive division title. A win for the Bills would give them the same record as the Patriots heading into Week 17, though the defending champs own the tiebreaker.

New England is a six-point home favorite, according to OddsShark. The over/under is 38.5.

The Patriots defeated the Bills in Orchard Park on Sept. 29, continuing their dominance over their divisional rivals. New England has a six-game winning streak against Buffalo. The Patriots have won 14 straight games over the Bills when Tom Brady has played in both halves.

New England is 16-2 against Buffalo in their last 18 meetings in Foxborough. The Patriots had won 21 straight home games overall, including the playoffs, until the Kansas City Chiefs beat them in Week 14.

The offense failed the Patriots in that contest, as it has in all three of their losses this season. Even as New England ended its two-game losing streak Sunday with a 34-13 win over the Cincinnati Bengals, it was the defense that led the way. Stephon Gilmore returned an interception for a touchdown and Tom Brady threw for only 128 yards.

It was a similar story for Buffalo in Week 15. The Bills beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road 17-10. Josh Allen threw for 139 yards. Buffalo intercepted Devlin Hodges four times.

By just about any metric, the Patriots and Bills have two of the NFL’s elite defense. New England ranks first in points allowed, yards allowed and yards allowed per play. Buffalo is in the top-four in all three categories.

The Patriots and Bills are second and third, respectively, in pass defense.

Brady is 21st among qualified quarterbacks with an 86.5 passer rating. Allen is 24th with an 84.6 rating.

A lack of explosive playmakers has hampered New England all season long. Julian Edelman is dealing with a knee injury and only had two catches for nine yards Sunday. No other Patriots’ wide receiver had more than 15 yards in Cincinnati.

Phillip Dorsett, the team’s second-leading wide receiver, has not had more than 53 yards in a game since the season opener.

Allen hasn’t thrown for more than 266 yards in a game this season. Against the top defenses on Buffalo’s schedule (New England, Baltimore, Denver, Pittsburgh), the quarterback is averaging just 155.8 passing yards per game.

All of that should add up to a close, low-scoring game Saturday in Foxborough.

It was the case when the rivals met in Week 4. The difference in New England’s 16-10 victory was a punt that was blocked and returned for a touchdown. Brady and Allen both completed fewer than 50% of their passes for a combined 303 yards.

The Patriots picked Allen off three times in Buffalo. The Bills’ quarterback could do a much better job of protecting the football this time around. Allen has thrown two interceptions in his last nine games. He has 13 passing touchdowns and six rushing touchdowns during that span.

The league’s best secondary won’t allow the Bills’ quarterback to have much success through the air. Maybe he’ll make a few plays with his legs to give Buffalo a chance.

Neither offense is much better than the other. Brady gives the Patriots the edge at quarterback, but Allen has shown an ability to make big plays late in games. He did so Sunday in Pittsburgh when Buffalo needed him to step up. It was Allen’s fourth fourth-quarter comeback in 2019.

Both defenses should be terrific. The Patriots are surrendering a league-low 12.9 points per game. Only Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ No.1 ranked offense has scored more than 20 points against the Bills since the end of October.

New England beat the Philadelphia Eagles 17-10 in Week 11. The Patriots avoided an upset in Week 12 when they held off the Dallas Cowboys 13-9 at Gillette Stadium.

Expect a similar result in Week 16.

Prediction: New England over Buffalo, 17-13