Can Aaron Judge Break MLB's Home Run Record? Yankees' Star Ahead Of Roger Maris' Pace
The New York Yankees might be struggling, but their best player is as hot as ever. Aaron Judge continues to hit home runs at an astounding rate, giving the slugger a real chance to make history in the 2022 MLB season.
With 45 home runs through his team's first 112 games, Judge is on pace to hit 65 home runs in 2022. That's well short of Barry Bonds' MLB single-season record of 73 home runs, but it's more than the 61 homers that Roger Maris hit in 1961.
Maris' 61 home runs still stand as the single-season record for an American League player. The former Yankees outfielder also has the most home runs in a year of any player who hasn't been suspected of using steroids.
When Maris was chasing Babe Ruth's then-record of 60 homers in a season, he had 41 home runs through the Yankees' first 112 games of the 1961 season. Judge has soared past Maris' pace with a historic start to MLB's second half.
In 19 games since the All-Star break, Judge has hit 12 home runs over the course of just 70 at-bats. Judge has surpassed two-way star Shohei Ohtani to become the overwhelming AL MVP favorite by hitting .400 with a 1.519 OPS in the second half.
Judge has been able to take advantage of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium. Many of his home runs, however, would reach the stands in any ballpark. Judge's average home run has traveled 412 feet, according to Statcast.
The latest betting odds suggest that Judge could fall just short of breaking Maris' record. Caesars Sportsbook gives Judge even odds to hit at least 62 home runs. Judge has -130 odds to finish with fewer than 62 homers.
The biggest issue in Judge's career has been an inability to stay on the field. From 2018-2020, Judge missed 37% of the Yankees' games. His injury history is likely part of the reason why New York was unwilling to meet Judge's asking price for a contract extension before Opening Day.
As a rookie in the 2017 season, Judge hit an AL-best 52 home runs. Judge stayed healthy for the majority of the 2021 campaign and finished with 39 homers in 148 games. Avoiding any serious injuries has allowed Judge to play in 108 of the Yankees' first 112 games in 2022.
It will be virtually impossible for Judge to keep up his second-half homer pace. Judge entered the All-Star break with 33 home runs, on pace to hit 58 in the regular season.
Nine of the Yankees' remaining 50 games will come against the Tampa Bay Rays, which own MLB's fourth-best ERA. Despite a .212 batting average, Judge has managed to hit four home runs in 10 games against the Rays in 2022.
If Judge is close to breaking Maris' record down the stretch, a favorable schedule could help put the 30-year-old over the top. The Yankees conclude the season with three games against the Baltimore Orioles and four games against the Texas Rangers. Judge is hitting .397 with nine homers in 15 games against Baltimore. Texas has the AL's fourth-worst ERA.
During the historic 1998 Home Run Chase, Mark McGwire hit 70 home runs while Sammy Sosa finished with 66. McGwire has the only other 65-homer season in MLB history, launching 65 long balls in 1999.
Giancarlo Stanton hit 59 home runs in 2017, coming closer to Maris' record than any player in the last two decades.
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