Capital flows to BRIC countries
Investment flows to the world's four biggest emerging economies -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- slowed slightly in the first half of 2010, but growth rates and the pace of dealmaking remain strong, data shows.
* Latest Thomson Reuters data shows BRICs accounted for 13.5 percent of the world's mergers and acquisitions deals year-to-date, with two of the top M&A deals globally in the past week in India and Brazil. Those were India's Reliance-GTL telecom merger with a deal value of $10.5 billion and Brazil's Mineracao Usiminas-Sumitomo merger valued at $1.0 billion.
* The BRICs accounted for over $41 billion in initial public offerings, or IPOs, in the first half of 2010 compared with $63.9 billion worth of IPO deals in the whole of 2009, ThomsonReuters data shows. Last year's number is likely to be surpassed as China's AgBank, the country's third-largest lender, is preparing for a $20 billion-plus initial public offering via a dual listing in Hong Kong and Shanghai. It could become the world's largest IPO.
* Money flows to the BRICs -- portfolio and direct investment -- are down this year in line with the global picture. The MSCI BRIC index .MIBC00000PUS has lost 9 percent this year, weighed down by the 26 percent decline in Chinese stocks .SSEC on fears of overheating and tighter monetary conditions.That is on par with world stocks .MIWD00000PUS but slightly better than developed market equities .MIWO00000PUS. EPFR Global data shows BRIC funds absorbed $741 million in the first six months of 2010, down from $3.64 billion in the second half of 2009. Brazil funds posted outflows ahead of its presidential election in October but China, India and Russia funds stayed in the red.
* The BRIC economies are rebounding fast from the global economic crisis, and both China and India were able to keep growing throughout 2008 and 2009. Brazil's central bank this week upped its growth forecast for 2010 to 7.3 percent. India is expected to grow at least 8 percent this year while China is to grow 9.5 percent. It is almost certain to overtake Japan this year as the world's second-largest economy. [ID:nTOE66104Z]. Russia is expected to grow 4 percent this year. Real economic growth from 1999 through 2008 averaged 9.75 percent in China, 7 percent in India and Russia and 3.3 percent in Brazil. In all four countries, GDP more than doubled between 1998 and 2009 while in China and India it trebled.
* On foreign direct investments, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said 2009 saw a sharp drop in FDI to the four BRIC nations as well as globally. However, preliminary estimates show BRIC nations capturing almost half the flows to developing world.
Here is a set of tables detailing investment flows to BRICs:
NET INFLOWS (OUTFLOWS) TO EQUITY FUNDS (in billion dollars) FUND GROUP 2007 2008 2009 Jan-June 2010 BRIC funds 3.6 -2.93 5.63 0.741 Brazil 4.3 -0.184 5.18 -1.374 Russia 1.3 1.6 1.86 1.995 India 0.158 2.5 3.44 0.246 China 3.7 3.0 7.52 1.200 Global EM funds 54.0 -48.3 64.5 17.391 (Source EPFR Global)
INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERINGS (in bln dlrs) COUNTRY 2007 2008 2009 2010 H1 Brazil 30.6 4.5 13.0 3.9 Russia 21.1 - 4.1 2.7 India 8.4 4.3 3.5 2.0 China 56.7 17.0 43.3 33.1 (Source: ThomsonReuters)
Mergers and Acquisitions (in bln dollars) COUNTRY H1 2010 Deals pct changeYoY BRAZIL 44.2 268 +51 RUSSIA 19.7 1,363 +39 INDIA 27.5 558 +212 CHINA 53.4 1,506 30 GLOBAL 1,067.0 19,263 9 (ThomsonReuters)
CENTRAL BANK RESERVES (in bln dollars) COUNTRY Dec 2008 Dec 2009 June 2010 Brazil 205.0 239.2 253.5 Russia 438.2 443.7 458.5 India 250.4 285.7 275.9 China 1,946.0 2,300.0 2,450.0* * Chinese reserves data valid for end-March 2010 (Source: central bank data)
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (in bln dollars) COUNTRY 2006 2007 2008 2009* Brazil 18.8 34.5 45.0 22.8 Russia 29.7 55.0 70.3 41.4 India 20.3 25.1 41.5 33.6 China 72.7 83.5 108.3 90.0 Global 1,461.0 1,978.8 1,697.3 1040.3 Developing 433.7 529.3 620.7 405.5 BRICs total 141.5 198.1 265.1 187.4 * Preliminary estimate (Source: UNCTAD) (Editing by Toby Chopra)
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