Capitol Riot Talk At Impeachment Trial Is Worst Nightmare For Trump Supporters

There is realistically little chance of a conviction coming out of former President Donald Trump's second impeachment trial in the Senate, but political allies are concerned fallout from the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol – an attack Trump is accused of inciting in the single article of impeachment – could be a public-relations albatross around the neck of both Trump and his wing of the Republican Party.

Allies of the former president are pleading with Trump's legal team to steer clear of the Capitol riot as they mount an impeachment defense, Politico reported Friday.

Trump has publicly entertained notions of another run for the White House in 2024, but his political allies legitimately fear too much discussion from either side during the impeachment trail could further tarnish the former president's reputation, perhaps damaging his political prospects to the point another campaign run would be futile.

Support for Trump 2024 is already waning sharply within the Republican ranks and a nationally televised impeachment trial will push front and center the images of Trump's red-hat clad supporters assaulting the very police officers they so rabidly claimed to support during a summer of social uprisings across the nation.

"The Democrats have a very emotional and compelling case," Steve Bannon, former White House chief strategist, said. "They're going to try to convict him in the eyes of the American people and smear him forever."

The voting math doesn't appear to add up to Trump being convicted in the Senate, with guilty votes from 17 of the chamber's 50 Republicans necessary to do so. That would preclude the Senate from potentially voting on a second measure to ban Trump from holding public office in the future.

The vote to ban Trump from office would only require a majority vote rather than the supermajority necessary for an impeachment conviction.

Only five Republican senators voted against a procedural play by the GOP to dismiss the trial based on the grounds it was unconstitutional to try a president who was no longer in office, so the prospect of at least 12 more joining those ranks to convict is a long shot at best.

But a conviction isn't necessary to chip away at Trump's base of supporters. A poll released Friday by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found most Americans believe Trump bears some responsibility at least for the attack on the Capitol.

Nearly two in three of those polled said Trump is at least moderately responsible for what transpired at the Capitol on Jan. 6. Fewer, however, believe he should be convicted by the Senate – only 47% of those surveyed favor that outcome, with 40% opposed to a conviction and 12% unsure of whether or not conviction was the right decision.

Those results were dramatically split across party lines, with more than 80% of Democrats surveyed favoring a conviction while roughly 10% of Republicans polled agreed.

"I think it's kind of ridiculous. Are we going to start impeaching all the past presidents we don't like?" asked Bill Stokes, a 67-year-old Trump voter from Wyoming. "I really don't feel like he incited a riot. He asked them to go down there for a peaceful protest. Maybe he didn't understand mob psychology, but I think his responsibility there – they're trying to put more on him than there really is."

Trump's assault on the legitimacy of the election also remains a sharp dividing line in the country, with 97% of Democrats believing President Joe Biden's election was legitimate, as opposed to only 33% of Republicans.

The poll does paint a picture that more Americans have a negative view of Trump's time in office, with 36% declaring Trump was great or good while in the White House, with 50% saying he was poor or terrible.

Trump's lawyers appear to have similar concerns about how prominent a role the events of Jan. 6 will play during the trial.

An anonymous source told Politico the constitutionality of the impeachment itself will be at the center of a defense that will focus on technical legal arguments.

Bannon advocates a focus on the topic that led the nation to this point in the first place.

"He is not going to be convicted, so we must address Nov. 3 (election day)," Bannon said. "And the best place to adjudicate this is the well of the U.S. Senate. It has to be dramatic, it has to be big. It has to be the big lie versus the big steal."

Trump on Thursday refused to testify at the trial after receiving a letter from lead House prosecutive Jamie Raskin.