Cavaliers vs. Celtics Game 5 Prediction: Can LeBron James, Cleveland Take Control In Boston?

After the Boston Celtics took care of business at TD Garden in the first two games of the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals, the Cleveland Cavaliers answered with two equally dominant performances of their own at home. The series is tied at 2-2, shifting back to Boston for Game 5 Wednesday.

“It's the best 2 out of 3 to go to the NBA Finals,” Celtics head coach Brad Stevens told reporters Monday night. “It doesn't get better than that.”

None of the contests have been particularly close. Game 1 was over at halftime and the Celtics outscored the Cavs by 38 points in Boston. Cleveland went plus-39 in their two home games, scoring more than 110 points in each victory.

The Celtics have been here before. They traded home wins with the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round in order to advance to the conference semifinals. Doing the same with Cleveland would get them to the NBA Finals.

Cleveland’s had their share of road embarrassments—they were beaten 121-87 by the Indiana Pacers in Game 6 of the first round—but the Cavs have proven that they can win in enemy territory. Trailing the Pacers 2-1, Cleveland gutted out a four-point road victory to even up the series in Game 4. The Cavs won the first two games of the conference semifinals on the road against the Toronto Raptors on their way to a sweep.

With a core of young players and no true superstar because of the injury to Kyrie Irving, the Celtics are just 1-6 on the road this postseason. The Cavs have relied almost exclusively on veterans with playoff experience, and they’ve got the best superstar in the entire league.

LeBron James has been able to do just about anything he’s wanted on offense in the last two games. He totaled 71 points on just 40 field-goal attempts at Quicken Loans Arena, shooting 62.5 percent from the field. James made four of seven three-pointers and 17 of 23 free-throw attempts.

Even with his inexplicably poor Game 1 performance, James is averaging 32.0 points on 54.1 percent shooting from the field and 39.1 percent shooting from three for the series.

It seems like forever since Marcus Morris was being lauded for his defense on James. The NBA’s best player is finding his way to the rim, taking advantage of switches—especially when being guarded by Terry Rozier—and making contested jump shots. James continues to sprinkle in those fadeaways that broke Toronto's spirit and are virtually unguardable.

Stevens might make slight adjustments as the Celtics try to force James into taking tougher shots, but there’s ultimately only so much that can be done. James has averaged at least 32 points on better than 54 percent shooting in all three series, scoring at least 42 points six times. Unlike Boston, his offensive production won’t go away on the road.

That doesn’t necessarily mean James will be able to carry the Cavs to a Game 5 win. This isn’t the first round, where James’ 46 points in Game 2 were enough to survive only two other Cavaliers finishing in double-digits, one of whom (Kevin Love) missed 11 of his 16 shots. Boston is too good, particularly at home, as they showed last week when they survived James’ 21-point barrage in the first quarter for a 13-point win.

It’s going to take a little something extra from the other Cavaliers, who have been inconsistent all season long.

The starting backcourt has been a wild-card for the Cavs. George Hill and J.R. Smith combined to score 12 points on six-of-24 shooting in the series’ first two games, missing 10 of their 11 three-point attempts. The guards totaled 46 points on 43.2 percent shooting in Game 3 and Game 4, going a much-needed 10-22 from behind the arc.

Kyle Korver averaged 8.0 points in Boston and 14 points in Cleveland. Tristan Thompson had his first double-double of the series Monday night.

“Those first two games in Boston, that wasn't us,” Kyle Korver said after Game 4, via ESPN.com.” That was really poor, poor basketball on our end. So, we've come home and we've taken care of business here. We got to win one there though if we want to win the series.

“And I think hopefully we can take a lot of what we've done here the last couple games -- we've had better movement, better body movement, better ball movement, screens, passing, our defense has been a lot more aggressive. So, we take that mentality to Boston and try to get Game 5.”

Thompson was inserted into the starting lineup after Game 1 and Cleveland has controlled the series ever since. The Cavs led for the final 44 minutes of Game 4 and they never trailed in Game 3. They even held the lead for most of Game 2, unable to withstand a 19-8 Boston run that stretched into the fourth quarter.

The bigger lineup has neutralized Al Horford, who devastated Cleveland’s defense with pick-and-rolls for much of the first two games. After averaging 17.5 points on 56.5 percent shooting with 5.0 assists per game, Boston’s best player was held to 22 total points on 17 shots and five assists on the road.

Maybe Horford will be more effective in Game 5 with the team back home. He’s scored at least 20 points this postseason with all five games coming at TD Garden. All five of Rozier’s 20-point playoff games have come at home, as well. Jaylen Brown is shooting 50.8 percent at home and 45.4 percent on the road.

Boston will have to score more to keep up with a Cleveland offense that is playing faster and getting more open looks. The Cavs have been inconsistent all season, but they’ve at least proven that their momentum won’t simply be halted by a change of venue.

James is inching closer toward yet another trip to the NBA Finals, and the Celtics might not have the personnel to stop him.

Game 5 Prediction: Cleveland over Boston, 102-98