Chiefs vs. Patriots Betting Odds: Over/Under Shows AFC Championship May Be Another Shootout

For the first time in five years, the New England Patriots are underdogs in an NFL playoff game. Oddsmakers have pegged the Patriots as 3-point underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs in this weekend’s AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium.

The opening over/under suggests this won't be a defensive battle.

The over/under for the game is listed at 57 points, according to betting site Bovada. That could actually be a conservative estimate, given the history between these two teams, as the Chiefs lost to the Patriots in a 43-40 shootout in Week 6 at Gillette Stadium. The 83 total points was among the highest of any NFL game in 2018.

The Patriots raced out to a 24-9 lead in that game before presumptive league MVP Patrick Mahomes made it a tie game late in the fourth quarter. The Patriots then methodically drove down the field and set up a game-winning field goal.

Statistical trends point to the Chiefs scoring a lot of points. The Chiefs averaged 32.2 points per game at home this season, good for fourth in the NFL. The three teams above them are all playing in conference title games this weekend.

The Chiefs were 7-1 at Arrowhead in the regular season and are 1-0 there in the postseason.

The Patriots were just 3-5 on the road this season, with all five losses coming against non-playoff teams. Despite finishing fourth in total scoring average, the Patriots only managed 21.6 points per game on the road.

Making things more difficult for the Patriots is that the Chiefs' defense gave up an average of just 17.4 points per game at home.

Recent performances by both teams suggest this could be yet another high-scoring game. The Chiefs averaged 31.3 points per game in their last three regular-season games and put up another 31 in the playoffs against the Indianapolis Colts. The Patriots averaged 24 points in their last three regular-season games before posting 41 against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Working against a shootout could be frigid temperatures. AccuWeather.com and other weather forecasts have Sunday's high at 12 degrees with a low of 4 degrees.