Chiefs vs. Patriots Prediction: Patrick Mahomes Will Take Down Tom Brady, Get Chiefs To Super Bowl

For the first time in its 47 year history, Arrowhead Stadium will host the AFC Championship Game on Sunday. On one side, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots aim to take home their ninth Lamar Hunt Trophy as the AFC champion for the ninth time since 2001; on the other, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will try to win it for the first time ever.

Sunday’s title game is a rematch of a 43-40 shootout that saw the Patriots win on a last-second field goal in Week 6. That game was in Foxboro and the stakes were not nearly as high, but there are reasons to believe it will be another fairly high-scoring game.

Mainly, that is how the Chiefs tend to play. They have the best offense in the league and the worst defense left in the playoffs. The defense was significantly better against the Indianapolis Colts in the divisional round, only allowing six offensive points, but there is no indication they can play that way two weeks in a row.

In the passing game, Brady might try to exploit cornerback Charvarius Ward and safety Jordan Lucas. Both were recently elevated to starters and have played surprisingly well for the Chiefs, but they are still young and relatively untested. Having star safety Eric Berry back could help alleviate those concerns, but that is not a guarantee.

New England will also likely test a Chiefs run defense that has not been dependable this season. The Colts abandoned the run early after falling into a 17-0 deficit, but still ran effectively when they tried. Sony Michel and the rest of the Patriots’ backs tallied 155 yards on 4.6 yards per carry against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Using the ground game to control the time of possession could be the Patriots’ best defense in this game. Bill Belichick is famous for taking away an opposing offense’s best weapon, but the Chiefs have too many for that to reliably work. In the first matchup, Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins were largely ineffective, but Tyreek Hill erupted for 142 receiving yards and three touchdowns, mostly in the second half alone.

Even if the Patriots manage to cover all of Kansas City’s receivers, running back Damien Williams is capable of having a big game. He ran for 129 yards and a touchdown against the Colts.

The Patriots won last time by forcing Mahomes, then in just his seventh NFL start, into early mistakes. He threw two interceptions in the first half and the Chiefs trailed 24-9 at halftime. If the Chiefs can take a two-score lead early in this game, as they have for most of the season, they can unleash a league-leading pass rush on Brady.

Andrew Luck was only sacked 18 times in the regular season, but the Chiefs took him down three times last Saturday.

Finally, while the Patriots have a level of playoff experience that cannot be discounted, their record on the road in 2018 should not be dismissed, either. They were only 3-5 away from Foxboro this year, with all five losses coming to non-playoff teams. They averaged just 21.6 points per game on the road, and the Chiefs’ defense only gave up 17.4 points per game at Arrowhead this season.

That trend is why they are underdogs for just the seventh time in Tom Brady’s lengthy postseason career.

Prediction: This will be a close game, but Andy Reid’s Chiefs have typically played the Patriots well. In the Reid era, Kansas City averages 35.7 points per game against Belichick’s defense. If the Chiefs can take an early lead and their pass rush can force Brady into inaccurate passes, it will be difficult for the Patriots to win.

Chiefs win, 35-27