College Football Playoff Scenarios: How Alabama, Michigan, Notre Dame, OSU Can Join Georgia In 2021 CFP

The final 2021-2022 College Football Playoff picture remains very much undecided heading into conference championship weekend. Six teams seemingly have a chance to earn one of the four postseason berths, depending on how Saturday’s games play out.

Georgia (12-0) sits atop the CFP rankings for the fifth straight week, and the Bulldogs are viewed as a virtual lock to make the playoffs. No. 2 Michigan (11-1), No. 3 Alabama (11-1), No. 4 Cincinnati (12-0) and No. 5 Oklahoma State (11-1) all have work to do in their respective conference championship games. No. 6 Notre Dame (11-1) can only watch and hope things break their way.

All eyes will be on Saturday’s SEC Championship Game between Georgia and Alabama. As the only undefeated team from a Power Five conference, the Bulldogs are expected to make the CFP with either a win or a loss. The Crimson Tide would unequivocally punch their ticket to the CFP by winning the SEC title.

Only a completely one-sided defeat for Georgia would put its playoff chances in question.

An Alabama loss would likely open the door for another team to take its spot in the top-four. There has never been a two-loss team in the CFP since its inception in 2014.

Like Alabama, if Michigan wins, it’s in. The Wolverines take on No. 13 Iowa (10-2) in the Big Ten Championship Game Saturday night. Michigan vaulted into the playoff picture by defeating No. 7 Ohio State (10-2).

There is a scenario in which Michigan could potentially make the playoffs with a loss. The Wolverines would need Alabama, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State to all come up short Saturday.

Even though Cincinnati is already in the top four, it isn’t certain that the Bearcats control their own destiny. Cincinnati will face No. 21 Houston (11-1) in the AAC Championship Game. The Bearcats are trying to become the first Group of Five team to make the CFP.

Oklahoma State and No. 9 Baylor (10-2) kick off Saturday’s action in the Big 12 Championship Game. Oklahoma State would virtually be eliminated from contention with a loss.

If the Cowboys beat Baylor, they’ll likely be in the CFP with a loss by either Michigan, Alabama or Cincinnati.

Notre Dame’s path to the CFP isn’t quite as clear. Even though the Fighting Irish only have one loss, they have no wins against teams that are in the latest top-25 CFP rankings. Cincinnati owns a head-to-head win over Notre Dame.

It’s possible that Alabama could remain ahead of Notre Dame if the Crimson Tide loses a nail-biter against Georgia.

Notre Dame wouldn’t be coached by Brian Kelly in the CFP. Kelly has taken the head coaching job at LSU.

No. 10 Oregon (10-2) takes on No. 17 Utah Friday in the Pac-12 Championship Game. It’s hard to envision a scenario in which the Ducks could crack the top-four.

The same goes for No. 15 Pittsburgh (10-2) and No. 16 Wake Forest (10-2), who will compete in the ACC Championship Game.

Baylor and Iowa aren’t considered real threats to make the playoffs.