College Football Playoffs: Can Notre Dame, Ohio State Stop Another Alabama-Clemson Final?

Top-ranked Alabama and No. 2 Clemson appear to be on yet another collision course to meet in the national championship game. Set to play in Friday’s College Football Playoff semifinals, the two teams are favored to face off with the title on the line for the fourth time in six years.

No. 3 Ohio State and No. 4 Notre Dame stand in the way of another rematch between Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney. The Fighting Irish will try to pull off a historic upset against the Crimson Tide in the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes are hoping their Sugar Bowl matchup with the Tigers goes differently than last year’s CFP semifinal.

Ohio State has the best chance of preventing another Alabama-Clemson Final. The Buckeyes arguably should have beaten the Tigers in what turned out to be a 29-23 loss in the CFP semifinal one year ago. Ohio State had a 16-0 lead late in the second quarter, and they surrendered the go-ahead touchdown to Clemson with just 1:49 left in regulation.

Trevor Lawrence made the game's biggest plays, catapulting the Tigers to a victory. Lawrence is the consensus No.1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, while Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields could be the second player taken.

The gap between Lawrence and Fields is a noticeable one, and it could be the difference in Friday’s game.

Lawrence hasn’t played a bad game all season, completing 69.2% of his passes for 2,753 yards, 22 touchdown passes and four interceptions in nine starts. The 21-year-old has added 211 yards and seven scores on the ground.

In just six games, Fields hasn’t been nearly as consistent. After throwing 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions through the first three games, the quarterback has thrown for four scores and five picks in Ohio State’s last three contests. Fields particularly struggled in the Big Ten Championship Game against Northwestern, completing fewer than half of his passes for just 114 yards.

Wide receiver Chris Olave is expected to return after missing the Big Ten Championship. Olave has 36 receptions for 528 yards this season. Only five teams give up fewer passing yards per game than Clemson.

The one blemish on the Tigers’ record is a 47-40 loss against Notre Dame, who ran for 208 yards on 5.2 yards per carry. It might take that kind of performance from Fields and running back Trey Sermon to keep Clemson from reaching the national championship game.

Notre Dame’s win over Clemson came with an unofficial asterisk because Lawrence was sidelined with COVID-19. The Fighting Irish were steamrolled by the Tigers 34-10 in the ACC Championship Game six weeks later when the star quarterback was under center, indicating that Notre Dame might not be able to compete with the sport’s top teams when they are fully healthy.

Alabama is a 20-point favorite over Notre Dame, according to betting lines compiled by OddsShark. That’s the largest point spread ever in a CFP game, and history suggests the underdog won’t be able to keep the contest close.

Five CFP games have featured a double-digit point spread. The favorite has one by more than 10 points in every single one of those contests.

Saban’s team demolishes opponents that they’re expected to beat easily. As 14.5-point favorites over Kyler Murray and Oklahoma in the 2019 CFP semifinal, Alabama jumped out to a 28-0 lead in a game that was virtually over at halftime. In the two other CFP games that featured Alabama as a double-digit favorite, the Crimson Tide outscored its opponents by a combined score of 62-7.

Quarterback Mac Jones and receiver DeVonta Smith give Alabama a pair of Heisman Trophy finalists. The Crimson Tide are second in the FBS with 49.7 points per game. En route to an 11-0 record, Alabama has put up at least 38 points and outscored its opponents by at least 15 points in every contest.

Notre Dame couldn’t stop Clemson’s third-ranked scoring offense. Expecting the Fighting Irish to even challenge the No. 1 team in the country could be asking too much.