Consumer Confidence In US Hits 16-Month High

Consumer confidence in the U.S. reached a 16-month high in November as Americans expressed optimism about the job market and said they expected higher stock prices and lower inflation over the next year.

The Conference Board think tank said its monthly consumer confidence index rose to 111.7, up 2.1 points from October.

The short-term expectations index also rose 0.4 points to 92.3, which the board said was well above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a looming recession.

The survey results had a cutoff date of Nov. 18 and the Conference Board didn't directly tie them to former President Donald Trump's election victory over Vice President Kamala Harris two weeks earlier.

But it noted that write-in responses about politics were higher than in 2020, when voters ousted Trump from the White House in favor of Joe Biden during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Exit polling showed that 75% of this year's voters said inflation had caused them severe or moderate hardships over the past year, compared to 24% who said it didn't hurt them, according to results posted online by CNN.

In addition, 68% rated the nation's economy as not good or poor, while just 31% said it was good or excellent.

In a prepared statement, Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson said the survey of 36 million-plus consumers showed they were "substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years."

A record 56.4% also said they expected stock prices to rise over the year ahead, while only 21.3% said they expected them to fall.

Average 12-month inflation expectations declined to 4.9% from 5.3% last month. Peterson said the new inflation figure "was the lowest since we first asked the question in July 2022."

The gains were largely driven by increased confidence among survey respondents under 35, with greater confidence also expressed by all income groups except those earning less than $15,000 or more than $125,000 a year (the bottom and top brackets, respectively).

Consumers' plans to buy homes in November stalled on a six-month moving average basis. Plans to buy most appliances and electronics were down, while plans to buy motor vehicles rose slightly, the board said.

Despite those findings, Reuters reported that economists felt they were outweighed by the strong optimism about the labor market.

"This bodes well for our outlook that consumer spending growth will remain solid in the coming year," said Grace Zwemmer, an associate U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.