Cook Political Report Downgrades Lindsey Graham’s Reelection Chances Against Tough Democratic Challenger

The Cook Political Report on Monday downgraded Sen. Lindsey Graham’s, R-S.C., reelection chances against Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison. The online election newsletter moved the race from the “Likely Republican” column to the “Lean Republican” column, meaning Graham no longer has a strong advantage on Harrison.

Harrison has outraised Graham in the past two consecutive quarters. In the second quarter of the year, the Harrison campaign brought in more than $13.9 million, nearly doubling its first-quarter fundraising haul of $7.4 million.

The current political climate in the wake of George Floyd’s death could also give Harrison a boost. Harrison, an African-American with a long political background in South Carolina, has emphasized racial justice issues as a candidate. Blacks make up roughly 27% of South Carolina's population.

“Racial injustice protests that swept the nation in early June also give Harrison, who is Black, further motivation for turning out African-American voters in the state,” Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors Editor for Cook, wrote in an analysis about the South Carolina race. “Were Harrison to upset Graham, South Carolina — the first state to secede from the Union in 1860 — would become the first state in history to have two Black senators serving at the same time, joining Republican Sen. Tim Scott.”

Harrison, 44, is an associate chairman of the Democratic National Committee. He previously served as the chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party from 2013 to 2017. He came from a working-class background in Orangeburg, South Carolina, and received a bachelor's degree from Yale University and a law degree from Georgetown University.

Lindsey Graham, 65, has represented South Carolina in the Senate since 2003. Although he was once considered to be a moderate on issues such as immigration and climate change, he has become an ardent defender of President Trump.

A Quinnipiac poll released earlier this month showed both candidates at 44% support, a possible sign of trouble for the Graham campaign.

The Democrats will need either three or four seats to retake the Senate, depending on the outcome of the presidential election. Other promising Senate races for Democrats include Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Montana and Georgia.