Coronavirus Economy: Quick Recovery From Recession? Polls Say That's Unlikely

President Trump may be touting a V-shaped recovery from the coronavirus-triggered recession, but experts now are saying any recovery may be long and painful, especially with Americans saying they have a number of conditions before they’d be willing to rush back into stores and restaurants.

Moody’s Analytics economist Mark Zandi is warning of a possible depression unless a vaccine is developed quickly – especially if a second wave of infections hits.

A vaccine is “critical. It’s a necessary condition for the economy to fully recover,” Zandi told CNBC. “We’re going to see the market reevaluate things at some point.”

Businessman and former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang predicted no return to normal without an effective vaccine.

As of mid-morning Monday, the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 was approaching 80,000. More than 1,700 deaths are being reported day-to-day, with models predicting that could rise to 3,000 a day by August.

A Gallup poll of 4,553 adults April 27-May 3 indicates 80% of Americans say mandatory quarantine should be imposed on anyone testing positive for the coronavirus with 14% more saying such quarantines are somewhat important.

Seventy-seven percent say improved medical therapies, 73% say a significant drop in the number of cases or deaths and 68% say an effective vaccine needs to be available before they would be willing to resume normal activities. Majorities also want to see widespread testing (61%), assurance there is adequate hospital capacity for sick patients (59%) and requirements that people stay 6 feet apart (51%).

That could be a hard blow for movie theaters, restaurants and beauty salons. Airlines already have said they don’t expect passenger loads to return to normal before 2022, and retailers are expecting consumers to be tight-fisted, especially in light of unemployment figures – 14.7% in April – that could move higher in May.

“While less than half think it is very important that four additional requirements be met before returning to normalcy, majorities say each is at least ‘somewhat’ important,” Gallup said in releasing the results Monday. “Among them are mandatory face masks in public areas, widespread contact tracing, lifting statewide stay-at-home or social distancing orders, and compulsory temperature checks to enter public buildings.”

The results make it less likely Trump’s hoped-for swift recovery will materialize.

“This is not going to be a quick recovery,” Nestlé SA CEO Mark Schneider said recently. “This is going to be a several-quarter, if not several-year kind of process.”

A Coresight Research survey conducted last Wednesday indicates 68% of respondents plan to avoid public places or travel despite the easing of restrictions, and 54% said they expect the impact of the outbreak to last more than six months.

Shoppers are cutting back on clothing and shoes but spending on furniture and home improvement.