Coronavirus Update: CDC Projections Show Hasty State Reopenings Could Cause Surge In Deaths

KEY POINTS

The CDC warned that if state's push forward with reopening without following necessary safety measures, it could lead to a surge in deaths at the state and national level
Several new projections showed how quickly or slowly deaths could rise across the U.S. over the next four weeks, depending on if those safety measures are followed
Select states, such as Georgia, have begun reopening despite not meeting the criteria to do so by health experts and the Trump administration

As several states push to begin reopening their respective economies, projections released Tuesday warned that rushed reopenings could lead to spikes in cases and deaths. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention released seven different projections as part of its latest COVID-19 forecast heading into May.

The newest projections came from Columbia University, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Northeastern, University of Geneva, Youyang Gu, and the University of Texas, Austin.

“Forecasts based on the use of statistical or mathematical models (subsequently referred to as “models”) aim to predict changes in national- and state-level cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths for the next four weeks,” the CDC said. “Forecasting teams predict numbers of deaths using different types of data (e.g., COVID-19 data, demographic data, mobility data), methods, and estimates for the impacts of interventions (e.g. social distancing, use of face coverings).”

The general consensus among the national projections is that the death toll will continue to rise over the next four weeks. However, projections split depending on the inclusion of “strong contact reduction,” with models including the reduction slowing while models without project a rapid increase in deaths.

State projections proved to have more variance due to factors like when coronavirus hit the state and how quickly state officials reacted to it. Despite the differences, deaths are still projected to rise across most states over the next four weeks. The speed at which the death toll rises remains a question mark for the same reasons as the national projections.

Some of the states projected to be hit hardest include California, Florida, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and South Dakota.

Along with the new models, health experts and officials have been warning state officials about the dangers of reopening too early.

“It's a safer strategy to get the number of infections in the community down to a really low level, and then testing and contact tracing and isolation can work,” University of Washington's Dr. Chris Murray told CNN. Murray and his team have advised several state officials on the pandemic, including Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who has been eager to reopen the state.

Businesses in Georgia began reopening Friday despite warnings about a possible surge from experts and even President Trump’s reversal. Georgia health officials have also admitted that the state hasn’t met all criteria for reopening under Trump’s "Opening Up America Again" guidelines.

“We didn't meet the full gating criteria, but we met several of them and we were approaching a plateauing, which made us feel that it would be safe to move forward because we had three things in place,” Georgia Department of Public Health commissioner Dr. Kathleen Toomey told reporters.

As of Tuesday, there were around 1.01 million confirmed cases and 56,752 deaths from coronavirus across the U.S.