Could Joe Biden Win Missouri? New Poll Shows Democrat With Narrow Lead Over Donald Trump In Red State

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has a small lead over President Donald Trump in Missouri, according to a poll released Tuesday by the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. The survey shows Biden with 48% support in the reliably red state, compared to Trump’s 46%, within the survey’s 3.5 point margin of error.

The poll was financed by the campaign of Democratic State Auditor Nicole Galloway, who is running for Missouri governor against incumbent Republican Gov. Mike Parson. The survey shows Parson at 47% and Galloway at 40%.

Missouri tends to be a solidly conservative state, having not only a Republican governor but also two Republicans in the U.S. Senate, Roy Blunt and Josh Hawley. Hawley, 40, is the youngest member of the Senate, having beaten two-term Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill in 2018.

McCaskill retweeted the poll numbers for Biden, and added, "I just fainted."

The Garin-Hart-Yang survey could be a dire warning for the Trump campaign, as Missouri was not considered a battleground state. In 2016, Trump beat Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton by more than 18 points in Missouri.

In 2008, Republican John McCain edged Barack Obama in Missouri, 49.36% to 49.23%. But in 2012, Republican candidate Mitt Romney received 53.76% of the vote.

The last time a Democrat won Missouri was Bill Clinton in the 1996 presidential election, earning 47.54% of the vote, while Republican candidate Bob Dole took in 41.42%.

Trump’s handling of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, along with his response to the George Floyd protests, could be costing him support in Missouri. As of Tuesday at 3:20 p.m. ET, there are over 21,000 cases of the coronavirus in Missouri and a death toll just under 1,000.