COVID-19 Could Kill Double the Current Projection If Jail Populations Not Reduced: ACLU Study

COVID-19 is estimated to claim around 100,000 Americans, but a new study released by the ACLU warns that twice as much may die if the jail population is not reduced. This new epidemiological model finds that “even if communities across the United States continue practicing social distancing and following public health guidance — we will still experience much higher death rates if no substantial action is taken to reduce jail populations.”

This projection does not limit the death toll to just the incarcerated population, as jails are quite effective at spreading the disease to their surrounding communities. They have a high rate of turnover, and about 66% of all people in jail on any given day (roughly 738,000) are pretrial detainees. The ACLU states that the average time an individual spends in jail is 25 days.

In late March, the United Nations called on countries to reduce their jail and prison populations, as U.N. High Commissioner Michelle Bachelet stated that “physical distancing and self-isolation in such conditions are practically impossible,” and “with outbreaks of the disease, and an increasing number of deaths, already reported in prisons and other institutions in an expanding number of countries, authorities should act now to prevent further loss of life among detainees and staff.”

The New York Times found that four of the ten largest-known infection sources in the U.S. were correctional facilities, which makes sense considering that the 1,242 counties with a prison population of at least 100 people comprise 90% of the United States population. The data compiled by multiple sources on this subject proves that it is impossible for COVID-19 to be confined solely to the prison population.

Additionally, the ACLU points out that the data underlying their model’s projection of over 200,000 deaths if America does not reduce its jail population substantially does not “even account for prisons and immigration detention centers, whose incarcerated populations are often held for longer periods of time.” Prisons typically hold those who have been convicted of more serious crimes, while jails hold people awaiting trial and those found guilty of less serious misdemeanors.

This fact revealed by the ACLU study has not been lost on other countries, as even authoritarian regimes like Iran have released 85,000 of their 240,000 prisoners (35% total), yet the United States lags behind much of the rest of the world on this subject. The most recent estimate is the U.S. has released just over 16,000 prisoners, or less than 1% of its 2.2 million incarcerated population.