COVID-19 Death Toll Could Double By End Of 2020

In early September, 188,000 people had died of COVID-19 in the U.S. By January 1, that number could pass 400,000.

A new projection from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine states that if trends continue, winter will lead to more coronavirus deaths. The researchers stated that the death toll reaching over 400,000 is considered the “most likely scenario.”

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In a best-case scenario, the U.S. death toll would add another 100,000, bringing the total deaths to over 288,000. However, the worst-case scenario is having the pandemic body count rise up to over 620,000.

Researchers considered cases, deaths, antibody prevalence, location-specific COVID-19 testing rates, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, population density, age and pneumonia seasonality when making their projections.

“These first-ever worldwide projections by country offer a daunting forecast as well as a roadmap toward relief from COVID-19 that government leaders, as well as individuals, can follow,” IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said in a statement.

“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” he added. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”

According to CBS, the IHME has previously been referred to by the White House Coronavirus Task Force. However, not everyone agrees with the latest IHME forecast. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University's School of Public Health, believes the predictions are unlikely to be true.

"We have gotten so much better at taking care of sick patients, I think mortality has probably fallen by about 50%," Jha told NPR. "The idea that everything we have learned in the last six months, we will have forgotten and that none of the new therapies will make a difference — I don't know any public health person who can look at this and think this is a credible estimate."

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Jha is also concerned that should the U.S. have under 400,000 deaths by Jan. 1, politicians will spin it as a win.

Meanwhile, the CDC’s forecast predicts there will be a decrease in cases over the next four weeks with deaths likely to reach anywhere from 200,000 to 211,000 by Sept. 26.