COVID-19 Warning: Coronavirus Won't Slow Down Until It 'Hits 60 to 70%' Of The Population

The deadly novel coronavirus has infected over 4 million individuals and claimed the lives of over 290,000 individuals worldwide and a top infectious disease expert has an extremely serious warning about it.

The initial wave of COVID-19 in places like New York, Seattle, or Los Angeles only represents a small percentage of the illness and upcoming deaths, according to Michael Osterholm, director of the Centers for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

“This damn virus is going to keep going until it infects everybody it possibly can. It surely won’t slow down until it hits 60 to 70%" of the population, the number that would create herd immunity, and halt the spread of the virus. It’s the big peak that’s really going to do us in. As much pain, suffering, death, and economic disruption we’ve had, there’s been 5 to 20 percent of the people infected. That’s a long way to get to 60 to 70 percent,” Fox News quoted Osterholm.

The previous pandemic- the 1918 Spanish Flu came in multiple waves throughout the world. There was a second and a third wave after the first one hit predominantly the military personnel in the spring of 1918. Over 675,000 people are estimated to have lost lives to the Spanish flu in the U.S. alone.

Experts believe that if new cases of the coronavirus infection start to fade this summer, it could indicate that COVID-19 could be following a seasonal pattern similar to the flu. And if COVID-19 retreats only to return later in the fall, the number of cases could just peak and overwhelm healthcare providers that must deal with flu cases and other diseases.

However, there are some key differences between the flu and COVID-19. The incubation period for the flu is just a couple of days, but that of the new virus is about five days. The longer incubation period and a higher transmission rate indicate that the COVID-19 could spread more easily compared to the flu.

Osterholm believes that only an effective vaccine can slow down the deadly virus before it hits a large segment of the population and develop some level of immunity. Even if we have such an effective vaccine, Osterholm opined, it is unknown whether it would be durable enough to confer long-lasting protection from the novel coronavirus.

"We all have to confront the fact there’s not a magic bullet, short of a vaccine, that’s going to make this go away. We’re going to be living with it. And we’re not having that discussion at all," Osterholm told USA Today.