Cowboys vs. Buccaneers 2023: Prediction, Odds, Why Tom Brady Upsets Dallas In Wild-Card Playoffs

The Dallas Cowboys visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as one of just two road favorites on the 2023 Wild-Card Weekend. Tom Brady finds himself in an unfamiliar position, getting points in a home playoff game.

The Cowboys are favored by three points in Tampa Bay, according to the latest betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Dallas has -146 odds to win straight up. The Buccaneers are +126 underdogs to pull off the upset in the "Monday Night Football" playoff game.

Dallas was a much better team than Tampa Bay during the regular season, even though they are a wild card and the lower seed. The Cowboys had a 12-5 record and outscored their opponents by 125 points. The Buccaneers won a historically weak NFC South with an 8-9 record, finishing with a minus-45 point differential.

Tampa Bay averaged 18.4 points per game for the league's No. 25 scoring offense. The Bucs had a top-10 defense, though the unit wasn't particularly dominant. In the last seven games, Tampa Bay has given up an average of 25.4 points, which would rank 30th over the course of the entire 2022 season.

Along with the Buffalo Bills, the Cowboys were one of two teams to enter the playoffs with a top-five scoring offense and scoring defense. Before losing 26-6 in a meaningless Week 18 contest, Dallas had scored at least 24 points in 10 straight games. The Cowboys' vaunted pass rush tied for third in the league with 54 sacks.

The Bucs scored more than 24 points just twice in 17 games.

The most important regular-season stats for Monday's wild-card playoff game might come from the Week 1 matchup between these two teams. Dallas hosted Tampa Bay in the season opener four months ago. The Bucs cruised to a 19-3 victory, outgaining the Cowboys by more than 100 yards.

Before leaving the game in the fourth quarter with a thumb injury that would sideline him for five weeks, Dak Prescott completed just 14 of 29 pass attempts for 134 yards and an interception against Tampa Bay. Prescott would go on to tie for the league-high with 15 interceptions in just 12 starts.

Prescott has thrown at least one interception in seven straight games. The quarterback has 11 total picks during that stretch.

In four career playoff games, Prescott hasn't exactly shined. Prescott is 1-3 in the postseason with an 87.9 passer rating. In his last three playoff games, Prescott has three touchdowns and two interceptions. Prescott went 23-of-43 for 254 yards, one touchdown and one interception in a 23-17 wild-card loss against the San Francisco 49ers last year.

Brady's playoff resume, of course, is unmatched. The five-time Super Bowl MVP had a 115.2 passer rating in a 31-15 win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Wild-Card Weekend a year ago. Brady had 25 touchdown passes and nine interceptions while making all 17 starts in the regular season.

Despite playing in every game, Brady was sacked fewer times than 28 other quarterbacks. There's a chance that Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen could return to the Tampa Bay offensive line after missing the entire season with a knee injury.

The Cowboys haven't looked any better than an average team in recent weeks. Prescott can't stop throwing interceptions. Dallas isn't getting to the quarterback at the same rate it did earlier in the season.

If the Bucs can adequately protect Brady, the quarterback has a good chance to add to his record with a 36th playoff win.

Prediction: Buccaneers over Cowboys, 20-17