Cowboys vs. Redskins 2018 Prediction: Why Washington Will Beat Dallas In Week 7, Stay Atop NFC East

With the NFC East seemingly up for grabs in the 2018 NFL season, each divisional matchup has a chance to ultimately decide which team ends up in first place. That’s why there’s so much on the line when the Washington Redskins host the Dallas Cowboys in Week 7.

The winner of Sunday’s contest is guaranteed to enter Week 8 in first place. Washington sits atop the NFC East with a half-game lead over both Dallas and the Philadelphia Eagles. A victory for the Cowboys would put them ahead of the Redskins and give them a 2-0 record within the division.

Even though Washington has the better record, the betting line suggests that Dallas is the better team. The Cowboys are only 1.5-point underdogs on the road, according to the early betting odds at OddsShark. The over/under is 41.5.

Dallas certainly looked like the better team in Week 6, despite the fact that both teams ended up in the win column. The Redskins hung on to win at home against the Carolina Panthers 23-17. The Cowboys blew out the Jacksonville Jaguars 40-7 in a contest that was basically over at halftime.

What are the chances that the Cowboys can play close to that well in Week 7? Not very likely, considering what Dallas has done over the first six weeks.

A win over Jacksonville gave Dallas a 3-0 record at home. The Cowboys trail Washington in the division because they haven’t been able to win on the road, losing to the Panthers, Seattle Seahawks and Houston Texans.

The Cowboys’ offense has been brutal away from AT&T Stadium. Dallas has scored just 37 total points in three road games. After scoring a season-high 40 points in Week 6, they still rank 25th overall in points per game.

It’s possible that Dallas’ win over Jacksonville will propel the offense going forward. The Jaguars are considered to be one of the NFL’s best defenses, and the Cowboys were more imaginative with their play-calling. Dak Prescott had a career-high 11 rushes for 82 yards. He made some big plays out of the pocket, finishing with a 107.5 passer rating.

But it would be a mistake to ignore Dallas’ previous five games, during which they never scored more than 26 points. It was just two weeks ago when the Cowboys were held to 292 yards of offense in a 19-16 overtime loss to Houston. Cole Beasley is the only wide receiver that Prescott can truly rely on, and the veteran recorded 53 yards or fewer in every game from Week 2-5.

Ezekiel Elliott will need a big performance in order for Dallas to leave Washington with a win. The Redskins are sixth in rushing yards allowed per game after holding Christian McCaffrey to 20 yards on eight rushes in Week 6. Two weeks ago, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara ran the ball 22 times for 77 yards against Washington.

New Orleans blew Washington out 43-19 because Drew Brees did whatever he wanted against the Redskins’ secondary, completing 26 of 29 passes for 363 yards, three touchdowns and a nearly perfect passer rating. Don’t expect Prescott to have anywhere near that kind of success on the road with this group of receivers.

Facing Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers at FedExField, the Redskins have given up 18.3 points per game at home. Prescott hasn’t thrown for more than 212 yards in any of his last five road games.

Sunday’s contest should be a low-scoring affair. Dallas is fourth in opponents’ yards per play, and only Baltimore has given up fewer points per game. Linebacker Sean Lee could return to the field after missing the last few weeks with a hamstring injury.

Alex Smith doesn’t need to put up big numbers in order for Washington to come away with the victory. Avoiding turnovers and negative plays could allow the Redskins to score enough points to escape with a win against a tough Dallas defense. The Cowboys have one interception and six sacks in their three losses. Seventeen quarterbacks have been sacked more times than Smith, and 30 signal callers have thrown more interceptions.

Washington controlled the clock and won by a touchdown when they hosted Carolina in Week 6 as a small home favorite. Look for them to do the same thing when they host Dallas a week later.

Prediction: Washington over Dallas, 20-13