Cyber Attacks And Mass-Casualty Terror Strikes Ranked Top Security Concerns For US In 2020

KEY POINTS

Cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure and election system seen as biggest security concern in 2020
Terrorist attacks against U.S. and its allies come in second
U.S. conflicts with North Korea, Iran and China ranked as having moderate likelihood

A cyberattack on the United States' critical infrastructure including the electoral system was ranked as biggest homeland-security related concern for 2020 by experts polled by The Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action (CPA).

The experts also rated more threats as likely to require a U.S. military response in 2020 than in any of the Preventive Priorities Survey's last 11 years. Thirteen conflicts were identified as top priorities for the United States.

The report was based on the perspectives of foreign policy experts who were asked to rank 30 of the ongoing and developing conflicts around the world.

As expected, U.S.-related threats top the list. In the wake of President Donald Trump's impeachment, there is good reason for U.S. homeland security to look out for these potential threat.

Coming in second is potential terrorist attacks on the U.S. and its allies by foreign terrorist organizations that could lead to mass casualties. An armed confrontation between Iran and the U.S. or one of its allies comes next, possibly triggered by Iran's role in regional conflicts and its support for proxy armed groups in the Middle East.

The experts also consider the breakdown of denuclearization talks with North Korea as worrisome. Maritime disputes between China and other Southeast Asian nations rank next in the potential to spark a confrontation that could involve the U.S. military.

A severe crisis between Russia and Ukraine and increase migration from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras following deteriorating economic and security conditions are the other conflicts considered top priority for the U.S.

Even as the number of potential conflicts increased, what CPA director Paul B. Stares said was even more worrisome. "Of the 30 conflicts in this year’s survey, only two were judged as having a low likelihood of occurring in 2020,” he said.

The experts rank organized crime-related violence in Mexico, political instability in Iraq due to sectarian tensions and deteriorating economic conditions, and Turkey's war against Kurdish groups in Syria as those with a moderate impact but a high likelihood.