Daily Commentary - 19/08/2009
:: Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar opens higher today against the greenback at 0.8260. During local trade yesterday the Aussie moved half a US cent higher towards 0.8250 after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's August board meeting underlined once more the market's expectations of an interest rate rise by the end of the year. Also delaying another test lower for the currency was a stronger-than-expected performance on local equities which finished the day only slightly lower after a poor lead from Wall Street. The Aussie tracked the Euro higher during overnight trade after a German survey of economic sentiment jumped to a three-year high pushing traders back in the direction of high-yielding currencies.
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8180 to 0.8320
:: Great Britain Pound: Pound Sterling opens higher against the greenback today at 1.6566 after a report showed the inflation rate was higher than economists forecasts. The Bank of England may have less reason to keep interest rates at a record low after the annual UK inflation rate unexpectedly held at 1.8 per cent. Over the last 24 hours the pound traded between a low of 1.6324 and a high of 1.6587. The pound is also higher against several other actively traded currencies including the Australian Dollar (2.0020) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.4550).
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.9900 to 2.0100
:: New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar opens higher today against the greenback at 0.6740 after a lacklustre local session on Tuesday. The kiwi rallied steadily in overnight trade to a high of 0.6760, tracking the Euro higher as German investor confidence jumped to a three-year high adding to evidence of a global economic recovery. Germany's ZEW survey of economic and investor sentiment increased to 56.1 in August from 39.5 in July. The kiwi continues to outperform on the cross rates and opens at 0.8150 against the Australian Dollar and 0.4750 against the Euro.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.6670 to 0.6780
:: Majors: The Euro (1.4126) moved higher against the greenback for the first time in three sessions as German investor confidence jumped to a three-year high adding to evidence of a global economic recovery. Germany's ZEW survey of economic and investor sentiment increased to 56.1 in August from 39.5 in July. The Euro rallied throughout most of the session after trading as low as 1.4066. Meanwhile, economic data in the United States was on the softer side of expectations with July housing starts down by 1 per cent and headline producer prices posting a 0.9 per cent monthly decline. Against the Japanese Yen, the big dollar opens little-changed from this time yesterday at 94.70.
:: Data Releases:
• AUD: Treasury Secretary & RBA Assistant Governor both speak in Sydney
• CAD: CPI, July
• EUR: EZ Current Account, Construction Output, June; German Producer Prices, July
• GBP: Bank of England minutes, August
• JPY: No Data Today
• NZD: Producer prices, Q2
• USD: No Data Today