Daily Commentary - 23/10/2009

:: Australian Dollar: The Aussie dollar ran into a wall of resistance ahead of 93 cents during yesterday's Asian morning session retreating throughout the afternoon with the market somewhat disappointed by China's envious 8.9% economic growth result. Much has been said in recent times about the strength of the Chinese economy and the importance to Australia and with some economists expecting GDP to come in at 9% or marginally higher the AUD slid lower. During the offshore session a weak Euro initially weighed on the Aussie, however after retesting technical short term support at 0.9190 and holding it opens this morning back at 0.9275 as North American equity markets traded up over 1%.

- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.9220 to 0.9300

:: Great Britain Pound: After holding up at 1.66 against the Greenback in Asia yesterday the Pound Sterling fell sharply following the release of disappointing U.K Retail Sales data for the month of September. Economists had forecast a rise in spending from the previous month's flat 0% result to around +0.5% however the second consecutive monthly 0% result took the annual Retail Sales number to a meagre 2.4%. The initial reaction saw GBP/USD drop to below 1.65 however it did manage to claw back earlier losses following positive risk sentiment during the U.S trading session and remarkably opens this morning back near yesterday's highs at 1.6625. The GBP/AUD cross rate remained range bound overnight oscillating between 1.79 and 1.8 to open near the bottom of the recent band at 1.7925.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7885 to 1.8000

:: New Zealand Dollar: The Kiwi fell from 0.7570 in afternoon trade yesterday following China GDP data, exchanging within a relatively narrow band between 0.7500 and 0.7550 for the majority of the European session. It wasn't until after the release of U.S economic data in the form of the conference boards Leading Indicators report that the range was broken with an upbeat assessment on the economic outlook triggering a rally on equity markets. The NZD retested resistance ahead of 76 cents in late trade and opens this morning near the overnight highs at 0.7585.

- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.7535 to 0.7600

:: Majors: The Euro dipped to 1.4950 in early offshore trade following the announcement of Euro-zone Current Account data which saw July's 3.7 billion EUR surplus turn into a 1.3 billion deficit during the month of August. U.S equity markets reversed the previous session's losses trading up over 1% as investors ignored an increase in weekly jobless claims and poor House Price data out of North America preferring instead to focus on a stronger than expected leading indicators report. The U.S conference boards indicator which gauges the economic outlook 3 to 6 months ahead climbed a higher than forecast 1% during September improving risk appetite and hurting the Greenback. EUR/USD climbed back above 1.5 to finish the offshore session on its highs at 1.5035 while USD/JPY retreated from a top of 91.70 to exchange at 91.30 at the time of writing.

:: Data Releases: