Daily Forecast - 09/12/2009
:: Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar opens lower today at 0.9010 after mixed local economic data releases yesterday. Strong demand out of Asia lifted the Aussie to an intraday high of 0.9165 after the current account deficit came in at A$16.183 billion in the September quarter, compared to A$16.8 billion median market forecast. Also underpinning the local unit on the day was the latest monthly NAB business survey which showed confidence has risen to its highest level since May 2002. Overnight however, it was largely downhill for the Aussie despite RBA Governor Glenn Stevens warning of higher domestic interest rates in a speech last night. The local unit instead succumbed to renewed risk aversion, a stronger greenback and a weaker gold pric e (down US$25 to 1,138/oz).
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8960 to 0.9090
:: Great Britain Pound: Pound Sterling (1.6260) took another tumble against the greenback overnight. Economic woes continue to weigh on the currency which is currently trading at seven-week lows. The Office of National Statistics reported that UK manufacturing and industrial production both unexpectedly stalled in October, after gains in September. The Bank of England is likely to leave interest rates on hold at 0.5 per cent when it meets tomorrow (Dec 10). Meanwhile, the pound opens largely unchanged against both the Australian Dollar (1.8000) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.3060).
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7940 to 1.8090
:: New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar opens lower today against the greenback at 0.7040. In local economic news yesterday, total manufacturing slumped 1.4 per cent in the September quarter, with meat and dairy production being the main cause of the fall due to lower prices. During overnight action, the unit traded between a high of 0.7170 down to 0.7046. Once again, the kiwi has run out of steam around the US72 cent area as the market awaits the outcome of tomorrow's monetary policy statement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Meanwhile, on the cross rates, the kiwi is currently trading at 0.7795 against the Australian Dollar.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.7000 to 0.7100
:: Majors: The greenback strengthened across the board overnight after news emerged that Dubai World's Nakheel PJSC reported a first-half loss of $3.65 billion, reigniting concerns of default on $59 billion of debt and spurring speculation that the global recovery would stall. The renewed bout of risk aversion impacted mostly upon the Euro which hit a one-month low of 1.4680 after German Industrial output unexpectedly fell for the first time in three months in October, decreasing 1.8 per cent. German factory orders also fell for the first time in 8 months in October. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (88.17) opens stronger today after rallying in overnight trade.
:: Data Releases:
- AUD: Trade Balance, Housing Finance, Oct
- CAD: No data today
- EUR: Trade Balance, Oct
- GBP: Trade Balance, Oct
- JPY: GDP, Q3
- NZD: No data today
- USD: Wholesale Inventories, Oct
:: Note: The above exchange rates are based on interbank rates. If you are considering a transfer then please login, register or call us for a live dealing rate.
Regards,
OzForex Dealers