:: Australian Dollar: Positive Australian economic data keeps on rolling in with yesterdays better than expected NAB Business Confidence and the ANZ Job advertisements surveys adding some support to the Aussie dollar. The AUD/USD bounced off 0.9070 following the announcements however resistance ahead of 91 cents capped any further advances in Asia. The volatility increased in offshore exchange as it bounced back from a Euro led dip towards 0.9050 to open this morning near its highs at 0.9130. Today sees the release of Westpac's Consumer Confidence survey along with Housing Finance data however tomorrows employment report holds the key for further direction on the AUD.

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- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.9080 to 0.9150

:: Great Britain Pound: The Pound Sterling continued its recent decline against the Greenback overnight failing to trade above 1.5030 despite several attempts in early London. An unexpected widening of the trade deficit to 3.8 billion GBP against forecasts of a narrowing from 3.3 billion to 3 billion instigated a move back to 1.4935 before a bounce back during U.S trade. This morning sees the GBP open at 1.4985 and 1.6402 against the USD and AUD with more downside likely on the GBP/AUD cross.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.6320 to 1.6450

:: New Zealand Dollar: Resistance around the 70 cent handle once again capped any further advances in early offshore exchange and with EUR/USD dragged lower again by concerns over Greece NZD/USD reached a low of 0.6960. In U.S trade however the Kiwi staged a comeback to take out resistance at and open this morning near its highs at 0.7025. Today's New Zealand fourth quarter Terms of Trade data is forecast to show a major improvement from the 1.3% decline the previous quarter to post gains of over 4% which should add support to the currency in Asia today.

- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.6985 to 0.7085

:: Majors: The Euro broke back below 1.3600 against the Greenback overnight following the release of a draft EU report on Greece. Despite last night's news that the Greek parliament passed measures aimed at reducing the government deficit from 12.7% to 8.7% the report warned that the additional taxes pose the risk of generating less revenue than the government has projected and that The implications on tax revenue of a contraction in demand should not be underestimated. In the absence of any meaningful European data releases EUR/USD drifted lower reaching a low around 1.3535 in early North American exchange. U.S equity markets continued to consolidate recent gains trading up slightly putting the big dollar at 1.3590 and 89.90 against the Euro and Yen this morning with the main attraction this week being Friday's Retail Sales and University of Michigan Confidence survey.

:: Data Releases:

  • AUD: Mar Westpac Consumer Confidence, Jan Housing Finance & RBA Deputy Governor Lowe speaks
  • NZD: Q4 Terms of Trade
  • USD: March Wholesale Inventories
  • GBP: Jan Industrial Production & Jan Manufacturing Production
  • EUR: Jan German Trade Balance, German Feb CPI & ECB President Trichet Speaks
  • JPY: Jan Core Machinery Orders & Feb Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index

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