Daily Forecast - 29/3/2010

:: Australian Dollar: The Aussie dollar finished the week near its lows at 0.9030 after dropping to the psychological 90 cent level during Friday's offshore trade. An unexpected fall in U.S economic growth once again hurt risk appetite taking the AUD lower. There was some relief late in the session with Gold rallying back towards 1,110 dollars an ounce and equities holding steady with the Aussie dollar opening higher than the close at 0.9060 in early morning trade. The AUD is lower against the Euro and GBP providing some relief for Australian exporters exchanging at 0.6710 and 0.6065 respectively.

- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.9010 to 0.9100

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:: Great Britain Pound: The Pound declined for the second week against the US dollar testing 1.4800. Reports showed business investment had fallen 4.3% as opposed the -5.6% eyed by the market, making it the largest annual drop on record for the fourth quarter. The break above 1.4900 during the US session came despite speculation that the English election will not produce a government strong enough to reduce the nation's deficit weighs on the Pound. Adding to the pressure was BOE policy maker Andrew Sentance who said 'large, widening deficits' may re-emerge as economic growth resumes for the consumption driven country. The Pound starts the week buying 1.4900 US dollars, 1.6485 Aussie and 2.1154 Kiwi this morning.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.6425 to 1.6525

:: New Zealand Dollar: Friday evening was not kind to the Kiwi which opened offshore on its intraday high of 0.7090 against the US dollar before sliding down to 0.7015 despite becoming China's second largest trading partner. Commodity currencies did not fare well amid speculation that gains versus the Greenback and Euro could not be sustained. Although US fourth quarter was revised downward to 5.6%, this still represented the strongest pace of growth since 2003 luring investors away. Today the Kiwi opens at 0.7050 against the US dollar.

- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.7000 to 0.7090

:: Majors: The Euro rallied against the Greenback above 1.3400 after opening Friday at 1.3265 in Asia. European Central Bank President Trichet completely reversed his opinion regarding involvement of the IMF who will provide approximately one third of loans to Greece. Trichet informed reporters he was extraordinarily happy that the governments of the euro area found out a workable solution. Greece will test the markets acceptance of the rescue plan next week when it sells 5 billion EUR of bonds. Meanwhile the twelfth consecutive drop in consumer prices saw the Yen fall to 92.30 overnight. The Yen reached an intraday high of 92.89 after the US reported 5.6% fourth quarter growth, below the expected 5.9%. However concerns over

the impact of Greece on the world economy sees the Yen open today at 92.55 ahead of Japanese annual retail sales reports whilst the Euro opens at 1.3470 versus the US.

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