Daily Forecast - 8/4/2010
:: Australian Dollar: The Aussie dollar managed to hold on to the previous session's gains trading within a relatively narrow range between 0.9260 and 0.9290 for the majority of the Asian day. In offshore exchange the AUD/USD initially dipped to 0.9250 following some disappointing European economic data before bouncing back to retest the top end of the recent range near 93 cents. This morning sees the local unit open at 0.9265 ahead of another closely watched piece of economic data in the form of the March employment report with general consensus of around 20k jobs added for the month and headline unemployment steady at 5.3%.
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.9230 to 0.9320
:: Great Britain Pound: Despite several attempts to break through the 1.5300 level yesterday and in early London exchange, the Pound Sterling fell rapidly to a low of 1.5135 against the Greenback. Concerns around slowing economic growth throughout the broader European region resurfaced following a lower than expected reading in U.K PMI Services, Euro-zone GDP and PPI data all of which weighed on the currency. There was some respite however with a late bounce ahead of this evenings BoE meeting taking the GBP back to this morning's opening level of 1.5228 and 1.6425 against the U.S and Australian dollars.
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.6350 to 1.6500
:: New Zealand Dollar: The Kiwi remained range bound after surviving a brief dip to 0.7025 in early European trade to open this morning at 0.7070. Technical resistance ahead of 71 cents and a lack of any N.Z economic fundamental news continues to keep volatility low in the NZD/USD. With next week's Retail Sales data the next meaningful data release the focus will continue to be on the AUD/NZD cross rate and offshore developments which opens at 1.3100 down from its recent 10 year highs above 1.3200 thanks mainly to a lower Aussie dollar.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.7020 to 0.7100
:: Majors: After climbing back above the 94 level to a high of 94.25 in the lead up to the BoJ meeting yesterday USD/JPY begun its retreat during the Asian afternoon session to eventually exchange as low as 93.12 overnight. The Japanese central bank left rates on hold as expected also choosing not to expand its lending program and with governor Shirakawa saying the economy is currently picking up steadily and ... we are seeing some signs of future progress rumours of an imminent upgrade in the central banks growth targets circulated. The Yen also strengthened against the Euro with the cross rate opening in Asia this morning on its lows at 124.50 with added EUR weakness coming on the back of disappointing Euro-Zone GDP and PPI data. EUR/USD fell from the 1.3400 level to 1.3325 and opens this morning on the lows at 1.3330 ahead of this evenings ECB meeting.
:: Data Releases:
- AUD: March Employment
- NZD: No Data Expected Today
- USD: Jobless Claims & FedSpeak
- GBP: BoE Rate Decision, Feb Industrial Production & Feb Manufacturing Production
- EUR: ECB Rate Decision, Feb Retail Sales & German Feb Industrial Production
- JPY: BoJ Monthly Report & Mar Machine Tool Orders