Daily Forecast - 9/4/2010

:: Australian Dollar: Yesterdays much anticipated Australian employment report had little impact on the currency with the 19.6k new jobs created during the month of March in line with the markets expectations. After remaining in a tight trading range between 0.9260 and 0.9280 for the majority of the Asian trading day the volatility increased overnight with the AUD/USD falling to 0.9220 amidst continued concerns about Euro-zone growth and sovereign debt. The Aussie dollar staged a recovery however following some reassuring comments about Greece government debt by the head of the European Central bank to open this morning on its highs near 0.9290.

- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.9250 to 0.9320

:: Great Britain Pound: The Pound Sterling gathered support overnight following better than expected U.K industrial and manufacturing production data bouncing from an early London low near 1.5140 to open this morning on its highs at 1.5275 against the Greenback. As expected the Bank of England kept rates on hold at 0.5% and voted to maintain its 200 billion GBP bond buying program for another month adding confidence. The GBP/AUD cross rate opens relatively unchanged around 1.6440 this morning with this evenings U.K PPI and an imminent break on the Aussie dollar through 93 cents likely to increase the volatility on the cross rate once again.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.6380 to 1.6500

:: New Zealand Dollar: Comments from the Bank of England and the European Central bank in addition to Euro-zone and U.S economic data saw the big dollar fluctuate against the Euro, Pound and Yen however movement on the Kiwi was once again limited. Volatility on the majors failed to spark any major movement on the NZD overnight as it remained range bound between 70 and 71 cents against the USD and 1.3100 and 1.3200 AUD.

- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.7020 to 0.7100

:: Majors: The Euro bounced back from an early offshore sell off to 1.3280 and opens this morning on its overnight highs at 1.3360. Concerns about Greece debt and disappointing Retail Sales throughout the Euro-Zone, which fell 0.6% in February, the most in 9 months weighed on the single currency however the move reversed following the conclusion of the ECB meeting. As expected the central bank kept rates on hold however President Trichet reassured investors at the ensuing press conference that default is not an issue for Greece and that he had no reason to think the previously outlined budget program will not be implemented rigorously. The comments sparked the recovery in EUR/USD which also helped EUR/JPY rally, jumping from 123.40 to 124.80. On the U.S data front a larger than expected increase in jobless claims for the week ending the 3rd of April did little to curb enthusiasm for long dollar positions as USD/JPY regained some lost ground to finish in New York back at 93.40.

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