Daily Forex Commentary-3 August 2009
:: Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar opens higher on Monday at 0.8355 after signs emerged on Friday night that the economic decline in the United States is moderating therefore reducing the allure of the greenback as a safe haven. The Aussie's climb resumed during the local session on Friday as month-end book-squaring took the unit to an intraday high of 0.8304. Resistance emerged at the US83 cent mark throughout most of the European session but roared to life after the release of US GDP which showed a lower-than-expected contraction in the second quarter and provided support to higher-yielding currencies. The Aussie hit a high of 0.8365 as gold, copper and oil also rallied
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8280 to 0.8390
:: Great Britain Pound: Pound Sterling opens higher on Monday against its US counterpart at 1.6724 after a report showed British consumer confidence held at a 15-month high. On Friday night the pound climbed from 1.6472 to a high of 1.6732. The Bank of England meets later this week and may decide to reduce the scale of its asset-purchase program. Meanwhile, the pound opens steady against the Australian Dollar at 2.0000 and slightly higher against the New Zealand Dollar (2.5300).
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.9850 to 2.0060
:: New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar opens higher today at 0.6590 as the greenback weakened against several of its major rivals on Friday night. Despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealands latest attempt to talk down the currency, the local unit moved higher on Friday and headed into the European session trading at 0.6568 against its US counterpart. The kiwi continued to rally during the New York time zone, hitting a high of 0.6626, as second-quarter US GDP showed a lower-than-expected contraction which had traders selling the greenback and taking on board higher-yielding currencies as safe-haven demand waned.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.6540 to 0.6640
:: Majors: The big dollar slumped against both the Euro (1.4269) and the Japanese Yen (94.74) on Friday after a smaller-than-forecast contraction in the United States economy sent investors to higher-yielding assets. Gross domestic product shrank at a 1 per cent annual pace in the April-June period compared to a 6.4 per cent rate of decline in the first quarter. Commodities such as gold, copper and oil also rallied sharply during the New York session. The Euro hit a two-month high of 1.4278 as news of the improving economy reduced demand for the greenback as a safe haven.