Daily Forex Commentary 30/7/2010

:: Australian Dollar: The Aussie dollar staged a remarkable recovery over the last 24 hours rallying from a post inflation report low of 0.8904 to trade at a high of 0.9040 overnight. After entering early London trade around 0.8965, Greenback selling provided the stimulus for the move as investors pushed EUR/USD higher following an upbeat consumer sentiment survey out of Europe. This morning sees the AUD/USD open at 0.9005 whilst with AUD/NZD demand also emerging following yesterdays RBNZ interest rate announcement the cross rate is higher at 1.2430.

- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8950 to 0.9050

:: Great Britain Pound: The Pound Sterling traded to its highest levels since February exchanging at 1.5660 overnight. The move was tempered however with the release of some softer than expected economic data in the form of the Nationwide House Price Index, Mortgage Approvals and Consumer Credit all of which fell short of economist forecasts. Despite the news the GBP/USD help up relatively well thanks mainly to a higher EUR/USD and opens this morning at 1.5610 whilst the GBP/AUD cross rate traded sideways overnight opening unchanged at 1.7325.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7250 to 1.7400

:: New Zealand Dollar: Following the RBNZ interest rate announcement and the accompanying statement the market adjusted its outlook towards future New Zealand interest rates pushing the NZD/USD to a low of 72 cents in quick fashion. Lost in the noise of the central bank announcement was the release of the June N.Z Trade Balance where the surplus narrowed from 768 million to 276 million NZD. Throughout the Asian day however the Kiwi clawed back the majority of its losses to enter offshore exchange around 0.7250. In what was a volatile session early Europe continued the theme posting a high at 0.7285 before reversing in quick fashion to retest 0.7200 and opening this morning at 0.7240 ahead of June Building Permits data today.

- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.7200 to 0.7280

:: Majors: The Euro popped higher in early offshore trade overnight following some positive European data. The index of consumer sentiment showed that confidence in the outlook for the economy rose to its highest levels in more than two years whilst German unemployment declined for the 13th month. As a result EUR/USD broke through previous resistance at 1.3050 to trade at 1.3105, its highest level since early May and opens this morning at 1.3075. USD/JPY continued to seesaw losing some of the positive sentiment gained in Asia following a slightly lower than expected Japanese Retail Sales result to open this morning at 86.85, down from early European highs near 87.50. All eyes will turn to Japanese economic data for direction in Asia today followed by this evenings much anticipated GDP which will provide the market with an update on the economic recovery in the U.S.

:: Data Releases: