Daily Forex Commentary Tuesday, 28 July 2009

:: Australian Dollar: With no local data releases yesterday the Aussie dollar took direction from equity markets which began their reporting season in Australia. The All Ordinaries finished the trading day up 1.2%, its tenth consecutive positive finish with the positive sentiment spilling over to the AUD. The Aussie entered offshore trade at 0.8215 buoyed by the prospect of a sharp recovery in the global economy and increasing commodity prices. Positive German and U.S economic data saw the AUD/USD spike towards 0.8250 overnight before it settled back to open this morning at 0.8225 ahead of today's NAB Q2 Business confidence announcement.

- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8175 to 0.8250

:: Great Britain Pound: The Pound Sterling managed to hold onto support it gained in Asia yesterday to trade within a relatively narrow band between 1.6450 and 1.6510 for the majority of the overnight session. Investors seemed unperturbed by Friday's shocking U.K GDP figure and instead continued to look to equity markets for direction which themselves lacked any true direction. This morning sees the GBP/USD open trade just shy of the 1.6500 level at 1.6495 whilst the GBP/AUD cross rate bounced back from a dip towards 1.9950 to be exchanging around 2.0035 at the time of writing.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.9920 to 2.0100

:: New Zealand Dollar: The Kiwi opens relatively unchanged this morning from yesterday's Asian close at 0.6570 after having momentarily spiked above 66 cents in late London trade. The brief rally came after better than expected European and U.S economic data however momentum was lost late in the session as equity markets finished relatively flat. Today sees the release of the New Zealand Trade Balance for the month of June with economists expecting a reduction from 859 million NZD to around 200 million NZD. Despite the relative inactivity against the Greenback the AUD/NZD cross rate opens higher this morning at 1.2525 having posted an overnight top near 1.2550.

- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.6530 to 0.6620

:: Majors: The Euro continued to rally during the London session overnight peaking just shy of the 1.4300 level before retreating to finish in NY around 1.4240. German consumer confidence, as measured by the market research organisation GfK, increased from 2.9 to 3.5 helping boost demand for EUR/USD while a 0.4% increase in German import prices during the month of June also added some support. In U.S economic data released overnight New Home sales caught the market by surprise with a whopping 384,000 or 11% increase in sales during the month of June, well above expectations of an increase from 342k to around 355k. The housing data helped fan the flames of optimism that have been burning brightly of late taking EUR/JPY to a high of 136, its highest level since the beginning of the month. Like the Euro the big dollar also gained ground against the Japanese Yen trading up from the Asian closing levels of 94.80 to exchange at a high of 95.40 before pulling back marginally to this morning's open of 95.20.

:: Data Releases: